Hamas shocked the world on October 7, 2023, when it launched an unprecedented attack on Israel, resulting in the deaths of nearly 1,200 Israelis, both soldiers and civilians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The attack marked a watershed moment in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, challenging Israel’s longstanding military and intelligence dominance, which have always largely dictated the rules of engagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Israel responded with heavy airstrikes on the Gaza Strip and in less than a month launched the ground invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Over the past year, Israel’s operation has continued to expand under the guise of “eliminating Hamas.” The brutal war has resulted in nearly 43,000 Palestinian deaths, mostly women and children, as well as widespread destruction of infrastructure. It has even led to the forced mass displacement of an estimated 1.9 million Palestinians.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The conflict also began spilling over into neighboring countries, raising concerns of a wider regional war as tensions escalated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But now that a year has passed since October 7 and the death of Hamas leader Yahya Shinwar in Gaza last week, how close is Israel to achieving its strategic goals in Gaza and beyond?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to (Palestinian) researcher Antoan Salat (of the Palestinian Information Center), after Sinwar’s death, some analysts were quick to see him as a possible opportunity for a cease-fire in Gaza and as an opportunity to negotiate the release of about 100 Israeli hostages being held from Hamas and other factions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, while the wider implications of Sinuar’s death remain uncertain, such optimism seems misplaced, ignoring the deeper issues and motivations driving the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“For Hamas, the loss of its political leader Sinwar, just months after the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, is a setback for the group’s leadership structure. However, Hamas remains adaptable, with its decision-making spread across a network of leaders both inside Gaza and in exile,” Salat told The New Arab agency (or Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, which is a pan-Arab news agency owned by the Qatari company Fadaat Media, headquartered in London,).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Israeli leaders are maneuvering to avoid a final cease-fire agreement, Salat argues, with the goal of protecting their operational gains and minimizing the concessions they may be forced to make in future negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“They remain wary of those responsible for the October 7 attack \u2013 veteran militant leaders, shaped by years of imprisonment, who are familiar with the weaknesses of the Israeli military and leadership,” Salat added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These individuals, driven by a deep desire for retributive punishment and an unwavering belief in Israel’s vulnerability, pose a unique threat. Israeli officials are keen to prevent them from becoming key players in any prisoner exchange, fearing their release could encourage future attacks and repeat the horrors of October 7 on a new date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Israeli affairs expert Ibrahim Abu Jaber (an economist and PhD in International Relations) told The New Arab that despite all the destruction Israel has caused in Gaza, “it is nowhere close to achieving any of its plans.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to Abu Jaber, all military confrontations between Palestinian resistance groups and the Israeli army are “asymmetrical”, given the disparity in capabilities and resources available to the two sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He stated: “However, for all its might, the Israeli military has not been able to achieve a decisive victory in these encounters, as seen in the failure of Operation Iron Sword” “Israel is still plagued by fear, tension and existential angst from while Hamas, while weakened, remains a force to be reckoned with.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As for Israel’s “relentless use of excessive force,” military security expert Jamal al-Khalid argues that it will only “exacerbate discontent, mobilize resistance, and fuel further animosity among generations of the oppressed,” whether in Gaza or in the increasingly unstable West Bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“While Israel’s current military might may create a sense of dominance and control in the short term, such a perception becomes misleading when we consider the long-term consequences,” he told The New Arab.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Israel wishes to emerge from the war with minimal casualties, Jaber is of the view that his government must revolve around political and diplomatic options to resolve the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Israel has faced increasing international isolation from the war in Gaza, and with increasing global criticism of its military actions in Lebanon, which have resulted in a staggering number of civilians, the pursuit of political and diplomatic solutions based on clear strategic objectives is becoming constantly more urgent, “he told the agency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
“Short-term tactical victories are meaningless without achieving a political settlement to end the conflict and save the region from impending war.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A multi-front war<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Since October 7 last year, Israel’s handling of the multi-front conflict involving Gaza, South Lebanon, Yemen and Iran has demonstrated the use of overwhelming military force, bolstered by support from the United States and international silence, according to Al Khalid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the beginning of the conflict, Hezbollah pursued a balanced approach between limited retaliation and full-scale engagement, exerting pressure on Israel, which subsequently caused the displacement of tens of thousands of Israelis to the north, the call-up of Israeli reserve forces, and the allocation of one-third of ground troops on the northern front, alongside half his air defense forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the intensity of the clashes gradually escalated, and by February, Hezbollah rocket fire surpassed that from Gaza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In recent months, Israel has carried out surprise strikes that have caused significant human and material losses to its adversaries, mainly through the assassinations of top resistance figures, including Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As the aerial bombardment continued, in early October the Israeli military announced that it had launched “limited” ground operations in southern Lebanon, which could expand into a wider, long-term offensive given the recent deployment of thousands of additional troops in the north.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Military security analyst Hisham Al Maghari points out that Israel’s regional policy is underpinned by military superiority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “On the technical and intelligence front, Israel managed a serious blow to Hezbollah with an operation involving the detonation of sirens, resulting in the deaths of dozens of the group’s operatives and hundreds of civilian casualties,” he told the agency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Israel’s air superiority is also impressive, with a fleet that includes advanced fighter jets such as the F-15, F-16 and F-35, alongside high-tech drones that can reach any target.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n Mahmoud Mardawi, an expert on Israeli and security issues, commented on Israel’s strategy of rapid military action in Lebanon and Gaza, stating that “results vary depending on the overall situation and conditions” on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “At the beginning of the military campaign in Lebanon, Israel’s objectives were clear: push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River, return the displaced northerners and separate the southern and northern fronts. To achieve these goals, Israel used tactics of shock, heavy fire and targeted assassination,” Mardawi said, adding that Netanyahu aims to “dismantle Iran’s proxies” and reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape to favor Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, he noted that Israel’s repeated efforts to realize these ambitions have faced obstacles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He said: “The assumption that Israel has no objective needs to be re-examined,” adding that while Israel has aimed for military victories, it has struggled to achieve decisive results. This is largely due to Hezbollah’s attrition strategy, which involves scattering Israeli forces and exploiting time and space to wear down the adversary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Over the past two and a half decades, this approach has proven successful, leaving Israel unable to secure a clear victory. Mardawi claimed that Hezbollah remains resilient, continuing to “inflict painful blows” on Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He added: “Hezbollah’s ideological foundations, the resilience of the Lebanese people and its well-developed capabilities made it difficult for Israel to achieve a decisive military victory in open combat, especially when it encountered prolonged resistance.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n The same challenges extend to other fronts, such as Iraq, Syria and Yemen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In Yemen, the Houthis have launched attacks on Israeli positions using missiles and aircraft, while targeting more than 200 ships in the Red Sea since mid-November last year, according to US Central Command estimates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The strikes prompted major shipping companies to halt transit through the Red Sea, raising concerns in Israel and its allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In response, the US, Britain and Israel launched airstrikes against Houthi positions in Sana’a, Dhamar, Hodeidah and Al-Bayda, in retaliation for which the Houthis declared all US and British vessels as legitimate targets, extending their attacks to ships traversing the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean or any area within the effective range of their weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Mardawi pointed out that the Houthis have significant human resources and that “Yemen’s harsh environment has forged a resilient mentality in its people.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n What’s next for Israel?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Abu Jaber argues that the United States is encouraging Netanyahu to escalate his multi-front war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He stated: “With the US presidential election looming, decision-making by the White House has become relatively disconnected, particularly on issues involving Israel and Palestine.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Netanyahu may try to take advantage of this political vacuum to settle the gains, possibly leading to a major military strike against Iran in response to the attacks launched earlier this month.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n But he warns that a major blow to Iran could ignite the entire region, which already supports the possibility of a large-scale regional war with unpredictable results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n “Iranian leaders, including the Supreme Leader and top military and Revolutionary Guard officials, have repeatedly promised a firm response to any reckless Israeli attack, especially if Israel targets Iran’s nuclear facilities,” he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Mardawi i, Israel’s current strategy would be unfeasible to implement against Iran due to its geographical distance, Iran’s vast capabilities, and its extensive experience in conventional warfare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He also noted that Iran has become adept at surviving under unprecedented sanctions, having built self-sufficiency in critical areas.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Hamas shocked the world on October 7, 2023, when it launched an unprecedented attack on Israel, resulting in the deaths of nearly 1,200 Israelis,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,834],"tags":[1372,1109,160,153,5965,1976],"class_list":["post-21158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geopolitical","category-middle-east-geopolitical","tag-hamas","tag-hezbolah","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-libanon","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21158"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21158\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21160,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21158\/revisions\/21160"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}