{"id":20978,"date":"2024-10-17T21:44:52","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T18:44:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=20978"},"modified":"2024-10-17T21:44:52","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T18:44:52","slug":"the-end-of-the-eus-economic-model-and-the-geopolitical-paranoia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=20978","title":{"rendered":"The end of the EU&#8217;s economic model and the geopolitical paranoia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The political project of a United Europe has collapsed due to a combination of political paralysis, geopolitical turmoil and abject economic failure, ending any aspirations of the EU to remain a global power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The issue now is who will fill the void<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This development is sure to push the member states of the union to choose to adopt a strategy of defending its national interest, dissolving the political foundations of the union that began with the Treaties of Rome in 1957. After decades of warnings and sluggish development, the European leaders are suddenly faced with a barrage of evidence that the ongoing decline will not be stopped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1.<\/strong> Delegitimized French President Emmanuel Macron is a political hostage as Marine Le Pen&#8217;s National Alarm can block any legislative initiative with the threat of a veto \u2013 and all he can hope for is &#8220;tolerance&#8221; from the biggest political force in terms of votes in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2.<\/strong> Germany&#8217;s largest car manufacturer spoke of closing factories for the first time in post-war history as the economic model that made the country the &#8220;steam engine&#8221; of the continent&#8217;s economy is no longer sustainable due to extremely expensive energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3.<\/strong> US tech giants are turning their backs on the European market because of the new restrictions it has adopted on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>4.<\/strong> The proxy war in Ukraine, meanwhile, has shone a light on the defense weaknesses of Western troops as the US and allies scramble to keep arming Kiev.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>5.<\/strong> The United States and its European allies are destroying their own militaries and economies to fight an increasingly futile crusade against Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>6. <\/strong>European member-countries are also losing credibility in the debt market, most notably the recent downgrading of France&#8217;s economic outlook by Fitch, essentially warning with a downgrade of the country&#8217;s credit rating, a day after the government presented its budget for 2025. This is an immediate &#8220;vote of censure&#8221; on Prime Minister Michel Barnier&#8217;s efforts to deal with the sharp deterioration of public finances.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"721\" src=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-105-1024x721.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20979\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-105-1024x721.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-105-300x211.png 300w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-105-768x541.png 768w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-105-1536x1082.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-105.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The &#8220;bill&#8221; for the Ukrainian issue<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>European countries at the same time are facing the consequences of their leaders&#8217; almost unified stance in the war with Russia where they submitted to US pursuits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>German manufacturing continues to falter amid sanctions on Russian natural gas that have sharply increased energy prices, while social services across the continent struggle to adjust to the cost of hosting Ukrainian refugees, sparking widespread social outrage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>EU leaders, most now facing social majorities, appear intransigent amid widespread opposition to their foreign and domestic policies as pro-peace protests spread across the continent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>French President Emmanuel Macron has faced continued resistance to cuts to hard-won labor rights, while farmers in Poland and other countries have protested against neoliberal economic measures that favor Ukrainian agricultural production over domestic production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>They are literally sucking out the little economic momentum that exists in Europe<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The populations of European states are becoming poorer day by day.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The energy crisis is here.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There is a manufacturing crisis underway.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Their industrial production declines drastically, so does productivity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-106-1024x800.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20980\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-106-1024x800.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-106-300x234.png 300w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-106-768x600.png 768w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-106-1536x1200.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-106-2048x1600.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Failure to address threats<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All these developments highlight the EU&#8217;s failure to act as a coherent and dynamic economic bloc, eroding its power and degrading its ability to respond to a wide range of threats &#8211; from Chinese industrial policy to geopolitical turmoil such as that which has triggered the Ukrainian or even a future unfriendly government in the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent apathy or pushback from governments following former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi&#8217;s wake-up call for more investment and joint borrowing to combat weak productivity growth underscores how the region has given up on trying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you want to be a geopolitical power, then economic power is the key ingredient. The failure to increase productivity was simply disastrous. Europe is still rich, but the 20-year lag has huge implications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The fundamental problem<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fundamental problem is that the world is experiencing the dramatic changes of climate change, demographic aging and the transition to a post-industrial economy \u2014 all contemporary phenomena to which Europe&#8217;s ability and willingness to respond appears diminished.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Its geopolitical rivals seek to exploit these transformations, while too many of the EU&#8217;s biggest members are saddled with economic models that have failed to deliver for too long &#8211; and restless voters who are not ready to embrace alternatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, China is struggling with its own economic slowdown and the US is heading into a crucial presidential election with its public finances on an unsustainable footing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But both of these states have highly centralized decision-making systems and raise vast amounts of private or public capital for defense and investment in cutting-edge technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Europe has none of these advantages \u2014 and this is increasingly evident. Certainly, living standards in its rich economies are not on the verge of collapse. Some countries may benefit from investment or trade agreements with the US, China or Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the longer current trends persist, the greater Europe&#8217;s vulnerability to dramatic economic shocks will be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These risks are already beginning to crystallize for the EU, as the bloc&#8217;s dependence on the Chinese economy grows even as it faces a growing number of standoffs with Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"483\" src=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-107-1024x483.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-20981\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-107-1024x483.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-107-300x141.png 300w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-107-768x362.png 768w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-107-1536x724.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/image-107.png 1580w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The break up with the old model<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The loss of cheap Russian fossil fuels after Russia invades Ukraine in 2022 and the advent of US President Joe Biden&#8217;s aggressive industrial policy mark a break with the old model that allowed Europe&#8217;s export economies to flourish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This adds to the pre-existing challenges posed by the rise of China and its own massive manufacturing machine, and the global leap forward in technological innovation that has largely bypassed the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Europe is at risk because the global economy is in the midst of a transformation akin to the industrial revolution. Those countries that failed to industrialize did not do very well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The result threatens to cause damage that goes beyond a simple lag in investment and productivity: the region&#8217;s leaders are losing confidence in the European venture. It is not only Eurosceptics like Hungary&#8217;s Vikror Orban who highlight the economic and geopolitical impasses that need to be addressed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Officials in major European countries are beginning to see the EU as an obstacle to be overcome \u2014 rather than the source of prosperity and protection it once represented. French officials are talking about forging deeper integration with a smaller group of countries outside the bloc because of the German stance that does not accept deeper economic integration, such as in the case of joint borrowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Polish officials report similar initiatives in the defense sector. The prime minister of Spain, traditionally one of the most pro-European nations, is undermining the country&#8217;s orientation by adjusting its trade policy to invite Chinese investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Orban is acting on another logic of geopolitical alliances. All of this undermines faith in the larger political plan \u2014 not only for politicians, but also for investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The EU&#8217;s productivity gap allows the US to move to another economic model. Executives and investors are starting to express similar doubts about Europe as well, especially with the recent decisions of Apple Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. to block their latest AI products from the EU market &#8211; undermining the bloc&#8217;s claim to be the benchmark for global standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Previously, most global companies saw the single market as too big and lucrative to leave, despite the onerous regulatory practice. Instead, US tech giants decided the EU&#8217;s AI rules were too restrictive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With that global political and investment landscape transforming, Draghi &#8211; the former president of the European Central Bank &#8211; laid out a plan to dismantle the bloc in September, detailing the risk of the region&#8217;s disintegration as an economic powerhouse (for more information about the subject please read the analysis titled &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/liberalglobe.com\/?p=20582\">Why does the EU Commission ignore the Draghi report on the competitiveness of Europe?<\/a>&#8220;).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The EU&#8217;s relative decline has been unbroken in the quarter century since monetary union. Europe has lost the will to power and someone is expected to fill the void \u2013 because as we know nature abhors them.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The political project of a United Europe has collapsed due to a combination of political paralysis, geopolitical turmoil and abject economic failure, ending any&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20982,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[818,390],"tags":[161,25,6084,58,1156,70],"class_list":["post-20978","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-politics","tag-china","tag-eu","tag-manufactuting","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20978","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20978"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20978\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20985,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20978\/revisions\/20985"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/20982"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20978"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20978"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20978"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}