If you had asked political analysts 15 years ago about the possibility of civil war in the US, they would have laughed. Not anymore. Recent tensions between the federal government and Texas over the former’s refusal to secure the border and enforce immigration laws are bringing to life scenarios that once seemed fanciful. In mid-January, Texas National Guardsmen took control of a section of the border near the Eagle Pass border crossing and then denied access to federal agents, setting the stage for a standoff that some have interpreted as sparking civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although Texas is pushing the limits, creating a potential constitutional crisis in the US, there are more pressing challenges. In today’s America, a combination of democratic backsliding, ethnic strife, and elite fragmentation has paved the way for a detour into violence in 2024. The only real questions relate to the scale of the violence and whether and in what form the American federation will survive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Conditions for civil war are emerging in America as it shows signs of greater political instability and violence. There are two factors that detect the possibility of political instability and civil strife.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1. <\/strong>The first and most important is whether a country is what we call an \u201canocracy\u201d, i.e. neither democratic nor authoritarian. The countries most at risk of civil war are those that move quickly from one end of the political spectrum to the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2.<\/strong> The second is whether the factors that mobilize citizens around ethnic, religious, or racial positions appear in these countries. These countries are most at risk of civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n These two factors are emerging in the US at an astonishingly rapid rate. From 2016 the USA started to downgrade and in January 2022 it was classified as a \u201csovereign\u201d. As of 2020 they have been characterized as a factional political system because the system is increasingly polarized around identity. It is now in a middle zone, where the risk of political instability and violence is increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The “Sons of the Earth”<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Civil wars are often started by groups that political scientists call “Sons of the Earth.” These are groups that have historically been politically and economically dominant, but have either lost or believe they will lose power. These groups feel that they are the rightful heirs of a country. The turn to violence occurs when they realize there is no way to regain power through systemic processes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There are indicators that measure when shifts occur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1.<\/strong> The first is a defeat in an election or when it becomes clear that in a democracy that group no longer has the numbers to win an election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2.<\/strong> The second is the loss of hope, i.e. futile protests. Protests are an act of hope because people take to the streets to express their discontent, hoping that the government will listen to them and make reforms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Others blame the Democratic Party for plunging the US into a right-wing identity crisis that some traditional elites are embracing, driving society to a tipping point. Republican analysts believe that, since 2016, right-wing populist movements have pushed back the elite at the top of the Western political class. Recent riots in Ireland over immigrant crime and farmers’ protests in Europe show that dissenters from mainstream policies are being ignored by elites, who scorn their outrage and adopt divisive policies and authoritarian methods to stamp out dissent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Abandoning democracy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Predictably, this drives the New Right to adopt hardline measures as well. More and more Americans are rejecting the politics of compromise and compliance. This goes for both ends. The old conservative establishment that remains committed to the system is gradually being marginalized in both parties. They are replaced by a motley crowd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On the right, it includes extreme rightists to Nietzscheans and neo-Nazis, united by contempt for the system. On the left, the motley crew are using government instruments to advance an agenda the New Right finds repugnant, such as pro-LGBTQI+ quotas. Likewise, talk of a Napoleon-like “someone” who can seize the reins of a crumbling America signals that many on the American Right are increasingly receptive to heretofore unthinkable solutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n All of this is pushing the American political system from the safe world of liberal democracy, where changes of government are predictable and disagreements are resolved at the ballot box, to the insecure world, where trust in institutions is low. The slide towards authoritarian politics is only one consequence. Equally troubling is the rise of ethnic factionalism in America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The elite is fragmenting<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n For the navel-gazing, disheartened and individualistic American society, the problem of collective action becomes even more acute. Chronic individualism makes race and religion useful points of connection for people who otherwise lack a common basis for organization. The labor collective had been dead for decades and is only now showing signs of awakening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Stuck in a globalized ideology, in a borderless utopia, the current US ruling elite seems fully committed to an endless cycle of redefining and interpreting the past through the lens of racial and gender inequality. The result is the rekindling of dormant racial enmity and the breeding of new resentments as core national myths are discredited with every school renamed and every statue removed to be replaced by \u201cinclusive art\u201d!<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another piece of the puzzle is the fragmentation of the elite. Bottom-up political change is rare. A structured anti-elite must emerge to challenge the ruling elite. It is common for the old elite to disintegrate when a new elite emerges to challenge the old order. Here both sides obviously have huge deficits. However, civil wars almost always involve the emergence of a determined vanguard elite. In the case of America before 2016, it is appropriate to think of the elite united in its basic directions and ideology. While there were disagreements, mainly fiscal, there was a remarkable uniformity of opinion on other issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump changes the scene<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump’s election changed everything. For the first time, American elites are truly broken. The Republican Party has become the party of Trump and is transforming into an anti-elite as it alienates itself from the assumptions of its old leadership. It is now open to a different vision of society and governance, however vaguely described by the former president and current candidate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Federalism ensures that a degree of political fragmentation is already built into the American system. It is no accident that the lines of confrontation in the civil war largely coincided with state borders. While the possibility of another civil war makes headlines in the US, the possibility of an insurgency is growing. If a civil war involves violence between the state and an internal usurper, able to fight back with either regional secession or state control along a border line, an insurgency is a smaller-scale politico-military struggle that is often regional and operationally asymmetric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In fact, the lines between the two are blurred. Rebellions almost never occur in modern rich states, not because such states do not have complaining populations. Simply put, rich countries have high levels of state capacity, meaning the resources and ability to exercise complete control over their territory. Weaker states often face insurgencies because they are less able to prevent the creation and migration of insurgent groups into areas far from their control. The American state is not weak, at least not in the sense of hard power. It takes a special kind of madman, then, to attempt a rebellion under such circumstances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This year’s presidential election will certainly include factional conflicts, due to efforts to stop Trump through judicial means. While rebellion is not on the horizon, the potential for low-intensity violence is plentiful. As the New Right consolidates under Trump and comes to terms mentally and morally with the adoption of tougher politics, we are likely to see acceptance of such confrontations not only by the masses, but also by lawmakers and the elite.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" If you had asked political analysts 15 years ago about the possibility of civil war in the US, they would have laughed. 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