With Yemen’s Houthi attacks on merchant ships passing through the Gulf of Somalia and the US attacks on the Houthis, another geopolitical crisis has come into focus, potentially affecting the global economy, i.e. our own pocket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These attacks force ships to go around Africa instead of going through the Suez Canal, and this translates into an increase in transport costs to get goods from the Far East (China, etc.) to Europe. So are oil tankers. Ships need to travel seven to twenty days longer to bring the goods – and that means the goods will reach the shops at significantly higher prices, which translates into higher inflation, especially if energy prices rise again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So far – because this development is recent – prices have not had time to be affected, but soon they will start to rise. And fears of rising inflation in Europe could delay a long-awaited interest rate cut by the European Central Bank, which businesses, borrowers and markets are anxiously awaiting to start next quarter. This would have inhibiting effects on the growth of European economies, but also on dealing with inflation, since the cost of increased interest rates keeps prices high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Brussels is concerned about the developments in the Middle East, clarifying that they are worried about the generalization and temporal extension of the duration of the crisis. Their concerns are certainly not only related to the economy. They are also related to geopolitical balances because at the moment Europe is surrounded by wars and hot fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The war in Ukraine continues and the E.U. it is forced to make decisions about whether to increase economic and military aid to it. In Israel, the Israeli attack against Hamas continues, while from time to time there are also clashes with Hezbollah. Pakistan is at loggerheads with Iran, new Afghan refugees are making their way to the EU, while Russia is asking Pakistan for restraint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In all these conflicts, which continue or increase from time to time, America intervenes. Its intervention is also decisive in Ukraine and Israel and now in Yemen. Theoretically, other allied countries also participate. In practice, however, the burden falls heavily on the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The problem is that the American policy of international interventions is not accepted by all Americans, who this November will vote for a new president. We still don’t know if Trump or another Republican will be able to be the candidate, but what we do know is that the political line of the party does not favor European interests. And he doesn’t favor it because it’s a line of US isolationism – Trump has recently said that even if Europe is attacked (by Russia), he won’t support it, and he’s decided to withdraw the US from NATO, which will be completely weakened .<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It is certain that if the Republicans win, their very convenient interventions for Europe will stop. It is impossible to support Ukraine militarily only with European funds. No European forces are involved in the attacks against the Houthis, only American ships are operating, while some of the other allies are escort ships. If Pakistan and Iran are involved in these crises, the crises take on global dimensions and so do their consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Everyone is concerned about the duration of the crises in both the Middle East and Yemen. And it is not the only cause for concern that the longer the crises, the greater their costs. Another reason for concern is that in eight months Trump may be elected and the geopolitical balances will change drastically to the detriment of the EU, which will be called upon for the first time in its post-war history to fend for itself geopolitically and militarily game – and she’s not ready at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So the political scene at the moment is not reassuring, on the contrary it is ringing alarm bells for all Europeans, who, apart from the general risk they all face, have an additional risk from the impact that geopolitical developments will have on the behavior of the apparently alienating Turkey, which in fact has absolutely no moral issue in changing opinion, allies and policy depending on developments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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