{"id":17155,"date":"2024-01-25T21:32:32","date_gmt":"2024-01-25T19:32:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=17155"},"modified":"2024-01-25T21:32:32","modified_gmt":"2024-01-25T19:32:32","slug":"how-trump-terrorizes-kiev-and-can-end-the-war-in-24-hours","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=17155","title":{"rendered":"How Trump terrorizes Kiev and can &#8220;end the war in 24 hours&#8221;?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It is futile to try to find some coherent tissue, some meaning at all, in the foreign policy of Donald Trump&#8217;s first presidency. Although his followers advertise that he &#8220;didn&#8217;t start a war&#8221;, as proof that his own four years of power in the most powerful country in the world did not have a bloody imprint (a positive one, obviously), this perception ignores the continuity of politics. That is to say, that whatever you do, even with the &#8220;heavy pressure&#8221; that the USA has internationally, produces long-term results. That is, even when the originator of the original policy has finished his term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So Trump&#8217;s flirtations with North Korea&#8217;s Kim Jong Un eventually encouraged the latter to continue his nuclear program unabated. Also, the economic war that started with China continues (with Biden&#8217;s blessings, of course) with unknown consequences in the international economy, but without any &#8220;American victory&#8221; in sight. While Trump&#8217;s contacts with Putin, whom he had even praised many times, probably convinced the clearly more intelligent Russian leader, that the USA, both in the era of Trump and in the era of Biden, is seriously suffering from leadership and vision. Something that perhaps &#8211; in our opinion &#8211; can partially explain the aggressive extroversion shown by Moscow towards Ukraine. In other words, betting that the US will not react either directly or effectively, experiencing a hegemonic recession and an inability to define policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Trump now appears as the favorite for a new term in the White House, having won the primary election for the Republican nomination in Iowa, while his opponent, Florida Governor Ron DeSandis, announced that he was withdrawing from the nomination race and that from now on he supports Trump. So we can already make a solid case that Trump will be the Republican candidate for the presidency of the USA in the November elections, while he is already ahead in the polls by Biden, who, although clearly exhausted and old, insists on running for a 2nd term.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-128.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17157\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Trumpian &#8220;solution&#8221; for Ukrainian<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This long introduction is made to go to the closest to us: Where the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview on Friday, that Trump&#8217;s perceptions of &#8220;immediate end of the war in Ukraine&#8221; (indeed within &#8220;24 hours&#8221; as hyperbole states) are &#8220;dangerous&#8221;. Zelensky justified his judgment by saying &#8211; and rightly so &#8211; that Trump does not clarify based on which scenario, which &#8220;settlement&#8221; he will seek to end this war. In fact, Zelensky invited Trump to Ukraine to see the reality up close, without an answer of course (something that has happened before).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is worth making the following point here: Trump throughout his election campaign (so far at least) while he insists that he will find a solution to the Ukrainian issue, he completely avoids explaining what it will be. He even refuses to clearly condemn Russia for the invasion, while his own party, the Republicans, have said that Moscow is responsible and has violated international law and have voted for sanctions against it and a large amount of aid to Kiev. Even worse, Trump has said in recent months that &#8220;we talked to Putin about invading Ukraine, if I were President he wouldn&#8217;t have done it&#8221; and even that &#8220;I&#8217;m glad that Putin approves of my desire to end the war.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For Trump, of course, he prefers a completely naive approach to international relations through a contradictory prism of either &#8220;personal management&#8221; or Manichean divisions (which are also easily overturned without any logic), where of course he himself has the\u2026 gift of persuasion, or at least he has the ability to convince himself that he is the &#8220;leader at the table&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>How does all this translate for Kiev? How if Trump is elected, in no time at all the US will abandon Ukraine, in whatever state it is then (most likely some version of the current impasse), and blackmail it into accepting a painful compromise with Russia. Where the compromise will include the Russian troops staying in what they have conquered, which is already a &#8220;red&#8221; line for Russia, having declared that these areas &#8220;have joined our state&#8221;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Such a development for Russia will of course be the most ideal, as not only will its Ukrainian adventure, which has bled the country multiple times and at enormous cost, end, but this will also be done with American mediation! And obviously with some treaty\/armistice that would enshrine the &#8220;Russian law&#8221; of invasion and occupation.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-129.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17158\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ukraine&#8217;s meddling in US domestic politics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But what special relationship does Trump have with Ukraine? During his term as President, they were interested in Ukraine for one main reason. To discover there some scandal concerning Hunter Biden, son of Joe Biden, when the former was working in Kiev. And this in order to offend the father, who was his opponent in the 2020 elections. The possibility that there was some financial\/political scandal involving son Biden is certainly not small. He himself, a miserable wretch today, with serious personal abuse and behavior problems, had enjoyed for several years &#8211; both in the US and internationally &#8211; the easy life, with &#8220;all doors opening&#8221; because of his name, developing relationships in Ukraine with there oligarchs. While he now has major legal adventures in the US, as he is being audited multiple times for tax irregularities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So Trump suffocated Kiev to provide corresponding information, in one case even cutting off a package of military aid to Ukraine, as blackmail. But looking for the scandal of his opponent, Trump managed to create his own scandal, as he was accused of illegally using his powers to serve his election campaign, even through a foreign country, to discredit his political opponent. So the House of Representatives in 2019, controlled by Democrats, impeached him, but that stopped in the Senate. And Trump&#8217;s phone call to Zelensky (both Presidents of their countries) has now gone down in history, with the former admitting that he discussed the subject of Biden &#8211; father and son &#8211; with the latter (in the following video from a meeting of the two leaders on 2019 with obvious embarrassment of both when receiving related questions).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"President Trump meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/1RCowmzTToY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So what is Ukraine to Trump? A country which he identifies with his political opponent, Biden, with certainty now that &#8220;the scandal that could destroy the Democrats in the 2020 elections was hidden there&#8221;. A country that &#8220;didn&#8217;t serve him&#8221; in revealing this scandal, but also where he himself was finally exposed. A country that &#8220;Putin&#8217;s friend&#8221; has invaded, wrongly perhaps, but only because Trump himself was not in a position of power to prevent the escalation and &#8220;sort out&#8221; the matter. So now a second round of opportunity is emerging, to solve all of the above, integrated into the already expressed Trump logic of mass revenge against all who stood against him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this murky setting, neither Biden nor his own administration is innocent. The great support of Ukraine after the invasion does not negate the primary diplomatic inability to convince Putin and his closed circle of power of the absurdity and danger of the attack. Even before the invasion, the USA failed to coordinate the NATO countries for a corresponding diplomatic intervention, while afterwards the management of Russia with a wave of sanctions which, however, proved to be less than the circumstances but also under constant bargaining, with significant geopolitical &#8220;escapes&#8221; such as that of Turkey, as with piecemeal military reinforcement, highlighted a deficit of political power and planning.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"726\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-130-726x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17159\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-130-726x1024.png 726w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-130-213x300.png 213w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-130-768x1084.png 768w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-130-1088x1536.png 1088w, https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-130.png 1451w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 726px) 100vw, 726px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The fundamental change of the Republican party<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Combined with the above with the lack of progress in the war that is entering its 3rd year, the fatigue of the American public (and the international one) on the subject, Trump&#8217;s fanciful descriptions are pleasant to hear and convince their own voters, who demand the domestic development and prosperity and are indifferent to any international issue. So Trump&#8217;s isolationism, his expressed desire for a gradual withdrawal of the US from Europe and his intention to &#8220;close international pending issues that do not concern us&#8221;, have a serious chance of being vindicated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To the question, whether a Trump as President of the USA again can impose such a radical change in American practice for Ukraine, by breaking all previous commitments (something that will have very heavy international consequences, beyond what is reserved in Kiev) the answer is largely affirmative. In that political system, foreign relations are an important area of autonomy for each President, while Trump in his previous term had shown his obsessions, setting aside any objection, even putting members of his family in the role of &#8220;diplomat&#8221;. Having changed foreign minister 4 times and defense minister 4 times, he had of course &#8220;achieved&#8221; chaotic results and degradation of American policies for decades, but let&#8217;s say again, his &#8220;own audience&#8221; approved him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After all, if the Republicans win the next elections (in the US, along with the presidential elections, there are House elections as well as one-third of the Senate elections), the newly elected legislators will be largely dependent on the &#8220;wave of Trumpism&#8221; sweeping their party . So either because of dependence or because of sincere identification with the revisionist Donald, they will not confront him. And already the interest of American society (cross-party) in Ukraine is decreasing, so there is the political background. But even until the November elections, the current Biden administration faces &#8211; for the time being &#8211; a problem in &#8220;passing&#8221; through Congress a package of defense and economic aid to Ukraine, due to a confrontation with the Republicans (but of a wider scope and not specifically for the Kiev).<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/image-131-1024x684.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17160\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If all of the above happens (many cases in a row but worth noting), Ukraine will be left with a support vacuum, as Europe will not be able to replace the American retreat. And American leverage for a humiliating compromise with Russia will be intense, even combined with the existing signs of exhaustion inside Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this setting, the Russian side has every reason to &#8220;praise&#8221; Trump and long for his re-election. Her own schedule can thus be designed (always as a development scenario) as follows: There elections in March with the re-election of Putin, who promises &#8220;victory in Ukraine&#8221; in a national-patriotic upsurge. Also, if the US fails to significantly strengthen Kiev, a Russian offensive action in the spring, not necessarily annihilating but to further secure the gains and increase. And then wait, until the American elections in November, where a Trump victory will bring about a change in policy. Will Russia be the real winner of this story, if of course the above dystopian scenario materializes? No, but let&#8217;s analyze this in the next article!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It is futile to try to find some coherent tissue, some meaning at all, in the foreign policy of Donald Trump&#8217;s first presidency. Although&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[825,3],"tags":[58,1156,215,70,1976,3395],"class_list":["post-17155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe-geopolitical","category-geopolitical","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-us","tag-usa","tag-war","tag-war-in-ukraine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17155"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17155\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17161,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17155\/revisions\/17161"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}