{"id":1605,"date":"2019-11-28T15:56:51","date_gmt":"2019-11-28T13:56:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=1605"},"modified":"2019-11-28T15:56:54","modified_gmt":"2019-11-28T13:56:54","slug":"the-policy-that-the-us-will-have-to-implement-following-the-violent-questioning-of-the-iranian-regime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=1605","title":{"rendered":"The Policy that the US will have to implement following the violent questioning of the Iranian Regime"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Iranian regime has recently used fierce brutality to suppress the\nuprisings of its indignant citizens. Anecdotal evidence published in the international\npress reported dead numbers ranging from 100 to 200, thousands wounded and\narrested respectively. Indeed, the theocratic regime in Iran was not confined\nto the application of wild pogroms but blamed the revolutionary citizens as\n‘hooligans’.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As is always the case the authoritarian regimes for any protests occurring\nin their countries attribute (blame) them to a foreign finger and generally to\nthe external enemies of their country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a9The law of intellectual property is prohibited in any way unlawful use\/appropriation of this article, with heavy civil and criminal penalties for the infringer.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Blank Map Iran with waterbodies<\/strong>
Photo by Siamax, licensed Public Domain<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The cause and the beginnings of intense protests<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decision taken by the Iranian government to impose restrictions on the\nuse of the oil market (60 liters a month per driver) with the simultaneous\nincrease in fuel prices by 50% was the fuse that broke and led to citizens ‘\nprotests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We will briefly mention that the protests began in a small town in Iran\n(Shiraz) where protesters attempted to fire a fuel depot while the police then\nintercepted them. From that point on, the demonstrations took on a massive\nnature and spread throughout the territory of Iran and mainly in the capital of\nTehran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After ten days of brutal violence, the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (Sepah)\nand military elite of the theocratic regime issued a statement that they\narrested the leaders of the counterinsurgency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The harsh everyday life for the citizens of Iran<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran’s economic data indicate the grim everyday lives of Iranian citizens.\nThe official inflation rate for the whole of 2019 was moved close to 40%, the\nnational currency has lost its value, the prices of meat and poultry have risen\nby 60%, dairy products by 40% and vegetables by 50% respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Iranian government’s decision to limit fuel and increase their price\nwas not accidental but forced and aimed at increasing state revenues as the\nunfavourable economic elements of Iran’s economy are purely a consequence of\nthe US sanctions that caused the collapse of Iranian oil exports, affecting the\nheart of Iran’s economy and soaring the prices of basic essentials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US policy to date<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All these developments justify the policy of incumbent US President Donald\nTrump against Iran. In fact, Iran has failed to circumvent the imposed US\nsanctions trader with the other countries that supported and continue to\nsupport the theocratic regime, such as China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, these developments are a geopolitical defeat for China\nbecause it turns out that its economic and political influence is not so strong\nthat it can support Iran’s economy by substituting Iran’s trade with all the\ncountries before 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the example of Iran that has come to this difficult economic and\nsocial situation, respectively, could be used as a paradigm by the US President\nand Congress respectively towards Turkey and the Turkish regime of President\nErdogan, which Turkey is continually questioning the NATO Alliance and being\nautonomous in the Alliance’s political lines, closely cooperating with Iran and\nRussia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These developments are, therefore, a justification for the US policies on\nIran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The future US policy against Iran and the Gulf Region in general<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From history we know that authoritarian regimes are commonplace when they\nare at risk of losing their power to react in a convulsant attempt to\ndecompress the social pressure that exists within the country either dissing\npublic opinion with false\/fake news and exerting violent repression or\ntriggering a war conflict with an “available” external enemy to rally\nthe people around them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since Iran is politically and militarily controlling Iraq, part of Syria, the Lebanese government, it is supporting the Yemeni rebels, etc. trying in this way to increase its influence and cancelling at the same time US policy in the Middle East (more details on this topic please read the analysis \u00abThe Risk Widespread Conflict in the Middle East to cancel US Policy in the Region<\/a>\u00bb), there are chances\u00a0 that\u00a0 Iran’s\u00a0 regime\u00a0 will make\u00a0 the\u00a0 strategic\u00a0 mistake\u00a0 of\u00a0 provoking and implementing\u00a0 a small – scale\u00a0 and\u00a0 controlled\u00a0 military\u00a0 action\u00a0 against\u00a0\u00a0 an external\u00a0 enemy,\u00a0 with aim\u00a0\u00a0 to\u00a0 rally\u00a0 the\u00a0 people\u00a0 around\u00a0 him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Iran makes such a strategic mistake both the US and their allies should\nbe determined to provoke the opposite effects that Iran would expect from such\na strategy. In other words, if Iran causes a small-scale war episode then the\nreaction should be such that a partial loss of its territorial integrity could\nbe caused in Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the Iranian regime in such a conflict appears to have lost Iranian\nterritory the loss of Iranian territory would cause the country’s unconditional\nsurrender, the regime would collapse from the inside and be forced to get out\nof the country by changing the political fate and history of Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since Iran does not carry out such a controlled conflict, the US sanctions\npolicy should continue, but at the same time the United States should also\npursue a policy of ‘charm’ towards the Iranian regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the US should promise the Iranian regime that if it fully\nimplements the liberalisation of society measures (i.e. free and full access to\nthe Internet, open information, open rallies without measures of suppression etc.) and to organize of free elections in\nIran which will take part in international observers, will then be allowed to\ntrade oil with the other countries gradually and according to the\nimplementation of the measures. In other words, a priority should not be the\nexchange of commercial transactions with a quantity of enriched uranium, but\nthe implementation of liberalisation measures by Iranian society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The aim of the US sanctions on the Iranian oil market may be to halt Iran’s\ntrend to increase the use of enriched uranium, but the pressure to implement\nthe full liberalisation of Iranian society should be priority because only\nthese measures will cause a rise in the movement of disgruntled citizens who\nwill be demanding a change in the political situation in the country. In such a\ncase, the theocratic regime of Iran will be forced to negotiate its escape from\nthe country by releasing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In such a scenario it will collapse from within as a paper tower and the\nstrong influence that Iran has achieved in the broader Middle East region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If this is not the case, the Iranian regime will continue to control its\ncitizens in power and each time will negotiate how much enriched uranium it\nwill use in exchange for reducing its imposed sanctions on oil market while\nretaining its presence in power.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Iranian regime has recently used fierce brutality to suppress the uprisings of its indignant citizens. Anecdotal evidence published in the international press reported…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,834,826],"tags":[1279,1280,160,1277,1040,1278,215],"class_list":["post-1605","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geopolitical","category-middle-east-geopolitical","category-usa-geopolitical","tag-guardians-of-islamic-revolution","tag-gulf-region","tag-iran","tag-iranian-regime","tag-middle-east","tag-protests","tag-us"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1605","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1605"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1605\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1607,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1605\/revisions\/1607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1605"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}