{"id":15652,"date":"2023-10-12T21:07:39","date_gmt":"2023-10-12T18:07:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=15652"},"modified":"2023-10-12T21:07:39","modified_gmt":"2023-10-12T18:07:39","slug":"turkey-its-geopolitical-issues-force-it-for-now-to-forget-the-downing-of-the-drone-by-the-usa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=15652","title":{"rendered":"Turkey: Its Geopolitical issues “force” it, for now, to “forget” the downing of the drone by the USA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Turkish reaction to yesterday’s downing of their own unmanned Anka type drone in northern Syria by an American F-16C is too subdued. Today the Turkish media is focusing on the continuous bombing of the Turkish Air Force in Syria, in Kurdish enclaves of the PKK and YPG organizations, in response to the terrorist attack on the Turkish Ministry of Interior in Ankara on Sunday. More specifically:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. “We neutralized 26 terrorists in northern Syria,” reports the state-run Anadolu Agency.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. “Parliament extends the intervention mandate of Turkish forces in Syria and Iraq” writes Sabah newspaper,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. “What the Pentagon announced about the UAV” carefully writes Haber Turk, where the US description of the event is relayed!<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Overall, the whole issue is “lost” from the news and they rely on the American assurance – as formulated by the State Department – that “there is no indication that Turkey deliberately targeted American forces in Syria”. While the announcement of the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs in highly diplomatic language says the following: “During operations, a UCAV was lost due to a difference in the technical framework in the de-escalation mechanisms with third parties (s.b. meaning here the American side). Necessary measures are being taken to ensure a more efficient operation of the de-escalation mechanism with the interested parties.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Why was this discharge as expected?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Initially, Turkey has no reason to further irritate the US, at least no more than it already does. As there is a semi-behind process of negotiations and pressure going on to get the Erdogan government to vote in favor of Sweden joining NATO, an issue that is now particularly critical for the Atlantic alliance and especially for the US. And that’s where Turkey is betting by haggling over the F-16 sale, connecting the two issues, something that Washington has also indirectly accepted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The issue of Sweden is at the top, however, as this way the anti-Russian bloc will be strengthened, a legal basis will be provided for the military coverage of Sweden by NATO, the “infinite” number of regulatory and operational procedures for the inclusion of a new country will be able to be launched to the Alliance (a project that will take years) and so on. All of this, together with the now pressing reactivation of NATO due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, does not allow Ankara much room for maneuver, beyond the fronts it has already opened. We remind you that today Turkey has the following major issues open at the geopolitical level:<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1.<\/strong> Its very position within NATO after its ambiguous stance on the subject of the Russian invasion, and therefore its relations with the West and the USA. In other words, it is a structural issue for the Turkish future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2.<\/strong> Its relations with Russia, which have warmed and strengthened, but certainly have not reached a balance and a long-term perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    3.<\/strong> The open military intervention it is making in Syria and Iraq in the “hunting” of the Kurds, while it has announced, but without yet implementing it to an extent, that it will impose a 35 kilometer deep security zone (in practice even more), within the neighboring country. With here, of course, underground pressure on the US, which is already acting in Syria with its own agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    4.<\/strong> Its relations with the Turkic countries of Central Asia where it wants to promote itself as their leader and representative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    5.<\/strong> Its relations with the Arab world, where it makes a significant opening to attract investments and partnerships, but at the same time it has also started a “massage” with Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    6.<\/strong> The serious immigration\/refugee problem it faces with millions of Syrians on its soil, as well as flows from Iran and Afghanistan (small but not insignificant) plus any flows from other African and Asian countries. With an internal crowd of desperate people has arrived in the country, which continues to experience economic and currency crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    7.<\/strong> The maintenance of its maximalist claims and the geopolitics of extroversion throughout its periphery, mainly with soft power (exports, partnerships, investments, cultural actions, hard diplomacy), but also sometimes with hard power (raids against Kurds in neighboring countries, continuation of state of emergency in its eastern provinces again due to Kurdish, military presence in Libya etc.).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So with all of this pending, it will be particularly paradoxical to believe that Ankara has the strength to “provoke” a new American reaction by raising the issue of shooting down its drone. Because here the American intention in Syria appears, which if nothing else is known.<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Known American intent in Syria, forcing Turkey to retreat to the present<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So for the US, staying in Syria is a necessity, imposed by the constantly threatened resurgence of the Islamic State, ISIS and all the panspermia of extremists, who in the anarchic Syrian landscape have found a “friendly environment” to flourish. So the Americans keep around 900 people inside Syria as stated (but probably more if you also count the various groups of “operators” of secret services and special forces that move in the country as liaisons, to collect information, to train Kurdish forces, etc.) , which together with strong surveillance and monitoring support, as well as air protection, conduct operations against extremist groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Washington knows that in this way it cannot eradicate the terrorist-radical phenomenon from the region, but on the other hand, it recognizes that it does not have the dynamics to make a big involvement with a massive deployment of forces. To say it simply “space for a new Afghanistan” does not exist, as does faith that such a thing will work. After all, the experience from Iraq and Afghanistan is completely disappointing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Thus, as an intermediate solution, the targeted strike has been chosen, against leading figures, against infrastructure, weapons warehouses, etc., as an attempt to intercept and limit any terrorist gathering that is going to become significant. Their valuable helper here is the Kurdish organizations in Syria, mainly the YPG. Which for their part want to expel these Islamic groups from their territories, to achieve a relative security for the civilian population of their influence and of course to entrench a zone of “self-reliance” and “semi-independence” for the next day of Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"
    Soldiers with Alpha Troop, 1st Battalion, 6th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division, make their way to a oil production facility to meet with its management team, in Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility, Oct. 27,2020. The soldiers are in Syria to support Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) mission. CJTF remains committed to working by, with and through our partners to ensure the enduring defeat of Daesh. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Jensen Guillory)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Kurdish organizations, which if nothing else have bitter experience of being persecuted by everyone, do not boast that they can achieve an independent state of Kurdistan. But they clearly see the example of neighboring Iraq, where in its northern part the autonomy regime operates as “Iraqi Kurdistan” with Irbil as its capital, already secured and recognized. So they hope that at some point they will achieve a similar arrangement inside Syria, with American support and the reluctant consent of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Who is supposed to exchange their recognition, with his strengthening as a “unifying” leader of a new Syria, after the long civil war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In this American effort, however, the safety of their personnel is a critical issue. Yes, this is threatened daily by the conduct of cruise operations and actions of all types, but the US government is not willing to have images of “coffins loaded onto planes returning to metropolitan USA”. All the more so when in the US today there is a turbulent political landscape, and the Biden administration sees intense questioning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So Washington has installed a very clear no-fly zone around its facilities, which are not few. Up to 28 bases are reported, but large and well-organized ones are much fewer. These no-fly limits are well known to Turkey, obviously to the Syrian regime, but also to Russia, which also operates in the region. And there is an unspoken “agreement”, a mutual understanding to put it more correctly, not to be violated on either side. As if this happens further chaos will follow, which does not guarantee anything positive for anyone.<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A valuation of the situation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In this complex setting, we keep the following facts: Turkey is constantly carrying out air operations inside Syria, pounding the Kurds, who know that they are supported by the USA. While as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently warned “all PKK and YPG installations are now legal targets, we call on all others to stay away from them”. The US now understands the Turkish “need” to intervene, not applauding it but tolerating it, keeping its own forces in the field while setting “do not approach” boundaries where they have a firm presence. Clearly, however, the above description is not of a constantly controlled situation and involves a serious risk of “random incidents”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    What we believe and value:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • How in all probability the appearance of a Turkish Anka, near the American base in Hasakah that led to its downing by the continuous American air presence, can hardly be interpreted as a direct challenge and threat to the American forces. But it may have been a reconnaissance flight, a lone “flag display”, as a detection of intent, or even an actual targeting failure. After all, if Ankara wants to “test” American tolerance in the region in matters of personnel security (and not simply claiming “space”), it knows that it will get an automatic reaction. As for the US, its own personnel and prestige in the region are non-negotiable. Especially today. Even more so the Americans have a lot of bad experience with “collateral casualties” and blue on blue incidents (i.e. exchange of fire between friendly forces, due to misunderstanding). So they are not at all willing to risk something like that, regardless of geopolitical balances.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • In fact, from the American side, as reported by the Associated Press, it is reported that “there were over a dozen attempts to communicate with Turkish officials, informing them that there were American forces on the ground and asking them to withdraw their drone, otherwise they would be hit.” <\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • Of course, this can be interpreted as “provocative contempt” on the part of Turkey. But the incident happened in tight time, with the Anka approaching the American base, leaving, returning, while it was probably managed by the Turkish secret services, MIT. And in Turkey there are many barriers: drones are being operated by the Army, the Air Force, the Navy, the Military Gendarmerie, and the MIT, with different agendas, probably with a division of targets and action zones in Syria between them. But even if MIT wanted to “play” with the nerves of the Americans, it is not certain that it directly resonates with the central Turkish administration and government. Which for many decades now, and before Erdogan, has been operating in terms of “fiefs”.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
          \n
        • The willingness of the Americans to defuse the incident is also evident. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown rushed to contact their Turkish counterparts after the downing and reassure them of the “strength of US-Turkish cooperation.” A comforting statement, that is, which Turkey immediately adopted and now reproduces in its own media.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          <\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          • All in all, we have an event that both sides involved want to “forget about” by stating that “these things happen”. Recognizing that it may indeed have been a technical failure, a lack of understanding, a malfunction of the bilateral contact mechanisms, which are also quite labyrinthine. In essence, if there is a greater depth of interaction, that is, if some “inner” circle of power in Turkey wanted to feel the American tolerance, now he got the answer and withdrew to analyze it\u2026<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n
            \n
            \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

            <\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Drones as a distraction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            However, the operational part of the demolition helped dramatically to relieve the tension. As the\u2026 victim was a drone. So we didn’t have human loss, which is much more difficult to “swallow”, we didn’t have funerals, funerals, tensions. It is a parameter of the use of drones that has not been evaluated as much as it should be. The fact that they are tools of war, but at the same time in “gray zones and times”, can always be considered as insignificant losses. Their action can be characterized as random, as a technical error, as a malfunction of a transmitter. And so be it, without hypocrisy, since they remain machines, even designed with much lower safety standards than a manned fighter, precisely because they do not need to protect the life of their operator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            The American “recipe” as seen in Syria is a given: you declare a critical zone, warn everyone to stay away, something like a Western with a sign “stranger entering our city, put your weapon away” and then anyone who does not respect it , he falls off his vanity horse, not “dead”, just shocked. Obviously, all of the above, if they happen, will also require the corresponding preparation, weighting and, above all, the prediction of reaction scenarios. After all, pranks are allowed between “friends”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            The Turkish reaction to yesterday’s downing of their own unmanned Anka type drone in northern Syria by an American F-16C is too subdued. Today…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15653,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,834,826],"tags":[3674,1978,88,4748,143,215,70,4753],"class_list":["post-15652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-geopolitical","category-middle-east-geopolitical","category-usa-geopolitical","tag-drone","tag-mit","tag-syria","tag-syria-kurds","tag-turkey","tag-us","tag-usa","tag-4753"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15652","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15652"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15652\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15663,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15652\/revisions\/15663"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15653"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15652"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15652"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15652"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}