{"id":15027,"date":"2023-08-31T16:07:40","date_gmt":"2023-08-31T13:07:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=15027"},"modified":"2023-08-31T16:07:42","modified_gmt":"2023-08-31T13:07:42","slug":"redut-pmc-the-new-wagner-the-kremlin-is-quietly-replacing-the-private-group","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=15027","title":{"rendered":"“Redut PMC\u201d the new \u201cWagner\u201d? The Kremlin is “quietly” replacing the Private Group"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The head of the “Wagner Group” Yevgeny Prigozhin is presumed dead along with his top deputies after the plane crash in Russia’s Tver region on Wednesday. While the cause of the crash has yet to be revealed, observers immediately pointed to the Russian state. The possible assassination was expected after the paramilitary group’s failed uprising in June and the subsequent “quiet” replacement of “Wagner” mercenaries by Moscow in various countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We recall that, shortly after “Wagner” took control of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and began a march on June 23 in Moscow, the group reached an agreement with the government to end the conflict. However, despite the Kremlin’s announcement that Prigozhin would leave for Belarus, he continued to be politically and financially active both inside and outside of Russia, signing new government contracts worth tens of millions of dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His top deputies, Utkin and Chekalov, also continued to work on maintaining a mercenary presence in key countries, in addition to maintaining in Belarus the 5,000-strong force withdrawn from Ukraine and Russia and building new logistical routes for the group in Syria, Libya and the Sahel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The appearance of some kind of reconciliation between Wagner and the Kremlin, after President Vladimir Putin met with the group days after the mutiny, was obviously false.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the authorities did not take drastic measures against the group (probably for fear of weakening state positions abroad), the Kremlin worked to thwart the projects that Prigozhin had managed to personalize over the years in conjunction with the security services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The power of Prigozhin and Utkin, their ability to maintain a clout in Belarus and the risk of sudden steps damaging the Kremlin’s image abroad have significantly reduced Moscow’s aid to “Wagner” as Russia’s 2024 presidential election approaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prigozhin managed to keep part of his business in Russia after the mutiny, and to maintain Wagner branches in peripheral regions of Russia, such as Perm, showing that the group, as an entity, had the resources to sustain its operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The appearance of some kind of reconciliation between Wagner and the Kremlin, after President Vladimir Putin met with the group days after the mutiny, was obviously false.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the authorities did not take drastic measures against the group (probably for fear of weakening state positions abroad), the Kremlin worked to thwart the projects that Prigozhin had managed to personalize over the years in conjunction with the security services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The power of Prigozhin and Utkin, their ability to maintain a clout in Belarus and the risk of sudden steps damaging the Kremlin’s image abroad have significantly reduced Moscow’s aid to “Wagner” as Russia’s 2024 presidential election approaches.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Prigozhin managed to keep part of his business in Russia after the mutiny, and to maintain Wagner branches in peripheral regions of Russia, such as Perm, showing that the group, as an entity, had the resources to sustain its operations .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Kremlin probably did not immediately “touch” Prigozhin’s forces abroad for fear of creating a power vacuum, as IS fighters remain highly disruptive in Syria. However, work on a large-scale replacement for “Wagner” was undoubtedly underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At last month’s Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, the official delegation included for the first time Deputy Chief of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Andrei Averianov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The media named Averianov as the commander responsible for the poisonings of double agent Serzh Skripal and Bulgarian arms dealer Emilien Gebrev. According to rumors, it was Averianov who developed a plan to completely replace “Wagner” in Africa with a military corps of 20,000 people. Prigozhin was extremely opposed to this and made every effort to prevent it.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A replacement for “Wagner” was to be created by various structures, mainly PMCs such as Redut, Convoy and a number of other groups. Redut PMC has been working in Syria for a long time. It is associated with the projects of Russian businessman Gennady Timchenko and is under the control of the Ministry of Defense. Redut led the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but has recently restructured to operate in other areas of Wagner’s presence, with the financial backing of businessman Oleg Deripaska.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Wagner’s “decapitation” effectively breaks up the group, because its board cannot be effective without Prigozhin, Utkin and Chekalov. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Moscow does not necessarily need to completely replace its “Wagner” mercenaries abroad with others. The commanders and fighters of Wagner’s foreign affiliates are frustrated, facing the prospect of either working for MoD PMCs or engaging in conflict with the military without adequate resources or the support of local authorities, as well as the prospect of criminal of persecution in Russia if they return home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The “Wagner” detachments withdrawn from Ukraine and Russia to Belarus are also effectively “locked” in training camps and dependent on agreements between Moscow and Minsk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prigozhin’s death looks like a logical outcome of the uprising and a symbolic warning to his sympathizers in the Russian political, economic and military elite. In this regard, the possibility discussed in the Russian media of a “staged” death would be equivalent to the actual death of the “Wagner Group” for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is another possibility that still needs to be considered. Dozens of employees of Prigozhin’s companies told the media that the reason for Prigozhin’s mutiny was his “mental state”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the Wagner boss has always had a “particular penchant for violence”, according to media reports, he explained to his subordinates the motivation for his mutiny with one sentence\u2026 “I was freaking out”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The head of the “Wagner Group” Yevgeny Prigozhin is presumed dead along with his top deputies after the plane crash in Russia’s Tver region…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[818,390],"tags":[3426,3790,58,1166,2431,4144],"class_list":["post-15027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe","category-politics","tag-army","tag-mercenaries","tag-russia","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-wagner","tag-yevgeny-prigozhin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15027"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15027\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15032,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15027\/revisions\/15032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}