Sweden’s accession to NATO will take place when Turkey and Hungary bring it to their parliaments for ratification. If this is done, then the White House will advance Turkey’s October 1st request to buy 40 new F-16 fighters and upgrade another 80 to Vipers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Apart from these, everything else was an excellent show of cohesion and harmony by NATO, which with the USA in a leading role, forced Turkey not to proceed with blackmail and threats. In return, Turkey got an Erdo\u011fan-Biden meeting and perhaps another one in 2023 at the White House, if and as long as the Turkish president does not start his familiar delusions and “holy intransigence” at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
After all, Erdogan’s passion is not so much the safeguarding of Turkey’s interests as he often mentions in his speeches, but his self-affirmation, that people from the “living rooms” of the world give him the importance he thinks he deserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The whips of the USA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The US has not had an effective strategy for Turkey since the Obama terms. Turkey received the wrong messages after the Arab Spring, proceeding with a sense of superiority rather than an objective calculation of its capabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Paradoxically, this surplus has also shown its limits in Turkey both in the economy and in the strategic impasses it reached in its relations with the US from 2017 onwards, where it went to the last stage of blackmail by purchasing the S-400 anti-aircraft\/anti-ballistic system from Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The American government, with the American president first, informed Erdogan that in the event that Turkey presents new pretextual obstacles to Sweden’s accession, then not only will it be isolated, but secondary sanctions will be activated to circumvent the sanctions against Russia. Let’s not forget that the HalkBank case as well as the recent scandal of Erdo\u011fan’s son, which has to do with falsifying competition and unfair commercial practices, came out a few days before the NATO Summit in Vilnius.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition, international rating agencies are constantly downgrading Turkey as long as they know that the US is in tension with it. Ankara has to rebuild a vast area after the earthquakes and, at the same time, create an “internal memorandum” to clean up its economy. Without Western support, nothing can be done. If he were to suffer sanctions at a time when Erdogan is just raising interest rates, then we would probably be talking about economic and social armageddon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zero Sum Game: The Good and the Bad Cop or otherwise: Biden and Menendez<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Senator Menendez has been instrumental in streamlining American foreign policy on Turkey. His uncompromising stance on the issue of the F-16 was so strong that the US government eventually took advantage of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Blinken, Sullivan, and the US president himself have consistently told Turkey (as they do now) that the US government will work with Congress to meet the Turkish demand, which if not met, Turkey will have an existential problem. in its air force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In other words, the US message to Turkey is that if it does not change its policy both at home and abroad, then “favors” cannot be expected from Washington, in which voices have grown louder about Ankara’s undermining role for American interests and for its special relationship with Russia. Menendez chose through amendments (like George Pope’s) to impose conditions on Turkey and thus create a precedent that any future American administration can exploit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A real carrot-whip precedent. If the word “cancellation” is difficult to include in the terms under the Arms Export Act, (AECA) then the word “freeze” is very easy to use. The end of Turkish delinquent behavior was and is the goal of Senator Menendez who, with this attitude, managed to delay a huge armaments program of Turkey for two whole years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, the qualitative upgrades of Greece, which has started the upgrades of the F-16s and literally entered the F-35s through the window, are already facts and now we are also talking about the great possibility of additional American aid to Greece, either through interest-free loans, or for favorable terms for other armament programs or collaborations which can be included in the Strategic Dialogue between the USA and Greece that has started since December 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Other reasons that led Turkey to confess its impasse<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Turkey has begun to draw closer to the West out of necessity. Necessity creates foreign policy, not preferences. Turkey continues to depend on Russia and Iran for hydrocarbons. Nevertheless, it sees that its relationship with Moscow must have limits because Turkey can after the A.P.P. not actively taking part in any alliance (due to fear coming from Sevres Syndrome) but takes a position when she sees the winner as in her history she has not correctly diagnosed the winner as many times as she has bet before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n From 6\/25\/2023 onwards, Turkey has made sure that Russia is at a stage where developments are expected. This practically means that Turkey cannot blackmail the USA and the EU. that he will “get closer to Russia” when Moscow’s future is in jeopardy and Erdogan’s favorite interlocutor, Putin, is not having the best of days. Turkey’s reluctance to let Sweden and Finland join NATO is due to its concern about the favor enjoyed by Poland from the US side and the strong upgrading of the Baltic countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Turkey sees that NATO has a change of “heart” and that in Russia’s soft underbelly, a post-war Ukraine will complete the ever-depreciating Intermarium. In the future, Turkey will not be the only power that will “control” Russia. In fact, things will become much worse if another Russia comes closer to the West and a coexistence formula is found between the West and Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Turkey’s “super value” depends on two conditions: How hostile Russia and Iran are towards the West. The vertical axis, which includes the Baltic states, Poland, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece through Alexandroupolis, is of particular concern to Turkey as the value of the Straits decreases. If Turkey does not move closer to the EU, then all of the above developments will reduce its value, especially if at some point it enters the EU. the treasury called Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The value that Cyprus has for NATO, and the anguish of Turkey<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Turkey’s anxiety about the value that Cyprus also has in NATO is evident and now Cyprus will be able to request an exchange of support. To support Turkey’s European perspective in return for Turkey to support Nicosia’s NATO perspective. Cyprus, through President Christodoulidis, has insisted on the creative participation of the EU. in Cyprus. Therefore, Erdogan will see Cyprus everywhere if he means what he says about “Turkish Straits” and “Coordinates for Cyprus”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Dead end for Turkey. An impasse caused by the constant tactics of its president, who demonstrated once again that he is more interested in creating “hustle” than in active participation in multilateral schemes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Menendez’s terms on Turkey’s purchase of F-16s combined with Erdogan’s new self-entrapment, (desire to breathe new life into Turkey’s European perspective due to the deadlocks analyzed) give Greece unexpected diplomatic weapons to show Turkey that good neighborly relations lead to better Euro-Turkish and American-Turkish relations. After all, this was also a warning from the American president to Erdogan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That US relations, if Turkey does not change its policy, will go through Greece. The analysis of this warning also includes an indirect recognition of Greece’s role as a breakwater of Turkish tactics and criminal behavior. Now Turkey has a real interest in getting closer to Greece. If Turkey said what it said to avoid admitting its impasses and to buy time, we will see it very soon. After all, Erdogan is not doing very well on Menendez’s terms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sweden’s accession to NATO will take place when Turkey and Hungary bring it to their parliaments for ratification. 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