From the mercenary war in Carthage in 241 BC. up to the Indian Rebellion of 1857, History is replete with examples reminding rulers how dangerous it is to rely on unreliable, silver-plated troops. For the past few hours, Vladimir Putin has been in danger of joining the long chain of those who have ignored this lesson.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Born in Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg), like Russia’s president, Yevgeny Prigozhin was for years a convenient solution for the Kremlin. The Wagner mercenary army, founded by Putin’s old chef with the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014, allowed Russia to outsource dangerous operations, first in Donbas, then in Syria, then in several African countries and finally in Bahamut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It was a cynical, win-win deal for both parties: the Kremlin promoted Russian influence, with casualties limited to criminals who bought their freedom by signing a contract with Wagner, while Prigozhin amassed vast wealth from mines and other loot. of his mercenary army, but also political capital in Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Wagner’s heavy losses at the Battle of Bakhmut were the turning point that led its uncouth founder to break with the military leadership and, ultimately, the Kremlin itself. The fact that the mutiny occurred at a time when the Ukrainian counteroffensive was in full swing adds dramatic dimensions to the conflict (please also read the analysis titled “Russia: The reasons that led to the Prigozhin-Wagner uprising<\/a>“).<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is, of course, too early to predict whether the mutiny will have dramatic effects on the war front – by the time Prigozhin’s movement broke out, Westerners appeared extremely anxious about the future of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. What is certain is that in these hours and days Vladimir Putin is fighting for his political (at least) survival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Even if Prigozhin’s move fails, as is likely, the Russian president will be forced to look twice behind his back as powerful military and intelligence circles wonder where their country’s choice and the manner of conducting this war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As for the West, it is certain that many will be rubbing their hands during these hours. The more prudent, however, will think very seriously of the enormous risks posed by an overthrow of Putin by the most aggressive and unpredictable exponents of a wounded nationalism or chaos in the country with the world’s largest nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" From the mercenary war in Carthage in 241 BC. up to the Indian Rebellion of 1857, History is replete with examples reminding rulers how…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[821,818,390],"tags":[4434,58,1166,2431],"class_list":["post-14344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asia","category-europe","category-politics","tag-outsourcing","tag-russia","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-wagner"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14344"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14344\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14348,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14344\/revisions\/14348"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}