{"id":13625,"date":"2023-05-04T20:50:12","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T17:50:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=13625"},"modified":"2023-05-04T20:50:13","modified_gmt":"2023-05-04T17:50:13","slug":"china-approved-the-extension-of-bri-to-pakistan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=13625","title":{"rendered":"China approved the extension of BRI to Pakistan"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Chinese President Xi Jinping flagged off the largest Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) transportation project of the railway line between Kashgar in East Turkestan (Xinjiang) to the Pakistani port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea. We should remind that Kian already has a naval base in the port of Gwadar. The railway line will not only have commercial benefits for China but also military due to the seamless and short logistics transport to the specific base of the Chinese navy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China took the initiative knowing the strategic importance and far-reaching impact it would have on East-West trade and communication. The project could cost China 400 billion yuan, equivalent to 888 tons of gold at current prices, or US$58 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the idea of a railway line between Kashgar and Gwadar had long been with Chinese policy makers when the Karakoram Highway was planned, it was downgraded for some time, first due to COVID-19 and then due to various security issues. The pandemic has almost been overcome worldwide, although, in China, some areas are still affected. However, Chinese authorities have found conditions favorable to reconsidering the major project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The proposal for this rail connectivity was evaluated by scientists from the state-owned China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group Co. Ltd. led by the institute’s deputy director of capital operations, Zhang Ling.<\/p>\n\n\n

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China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

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What prompts China to invest in such a huge project?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Research shows that the project has “the potential to reshape trade and geopolitics across the Eurasian continent and should be supported.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Undoubtedly, this is a remarkable project involving huge expenditure, skilled and unskilled labor and the risk of loss of life that usually occurs when a project of this magnitude is undertaken in the difficult Himalayan terrain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is not difficult to understand China’s vision for this 3,000 km (1,860 mi) rail link. By reviving the Silk Road connection of medieval times in its modern form, China will connect its western region with the Arabian Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It means that China will bypass the Strait of Malacca, thereby reducing its dependence on the South China Sea. Even in a scenario of blocking the Strait of Malacca, China’s access to the Eurasian continent and beyond will not be stopped. The railway project is part of China’s BRI. It means that China can be connected to transport networks \u2014 Afghanistan, Iran, Trans-Caspian and Turkey and then to European countries. Pakistan will be a beneficiary country because the nation will have easier and faster trade with China. It will be the modern replica of the ancient trade of the Silk Road. In addition, it will have military benefits as we mentioned in the first paragraph of our analysis (please read the analysis titled “The Chinese Strategy for Cancelling US President Joe Biden’s Strategy against China<\/a>“).<\/p>\n\n\n

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Shifting Balance of Power away from the West<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of geopolitical impact, the infrastructure initiative will become a catalyst for shifting the balance of power away from traditional Western-dominated trade routes. It will make the idea of a multipolar world a reality that China insisted on. The rail link is vital for the development of trade and commerce, and the countries through which it passes will have a fair chance of improving the standard of living of their people. Europe should reshape its trade and transport strategy. It also has huge potential for employment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But ultimately, it’s a question of capital investment. Who will bear the cost? Two countries are involved, China and Pakistan. Looking back at China’s investment policy in such projects, BRI construction projects received substantial funding from host countries and China’s contribution was much smaller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, in the US$3.8 billion Mombasa-Nairobi railway, China provided only 5% of the total cost and the Kenyan government undertook the remaining 95%. China contributed 30% of the US$4 billion funding for the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway line in Ethiopia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, China covered 75% of the $5.9 billion cost of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, with Indonesia’s state-owned enterprises providing the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Pakistan will not be able to contribute to the project in the context of its financial and economic disaster. Its Gross Domestic Product last year was US$370 billion, about six times the cost of the project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The survey report says: \u201cDue to energy shortages, poor investment environment and fiscal deficits, Pakistan’s economic growth rate is under pressure. In terms of railway investment and construction, Pakistan cannot provide sufficient financial and material support and relies mainly on Chinese enterprises for investment and construction.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

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China’s offshore naval base in Pakistan’s Gwadar Port<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Security questions about the project in Pakistan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Apart from the geologically complex terrain along the route and the technical challenges to be faced in building and operating the railway, there is also the issue of supporting infrastructure such as ports and logistics facilities which are almost not available in Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There may be other non-technical issues. For example, Pakistan’s labor policies could be non-static and change with changing regimes. Pakistan’s politics is the real determinant of its labor policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Along with this, there is the complicated politics of the security deficit in Pakistan due to the presence of highly radicalized elements in that country, who tend to kidnap critical persons for ransom. China is already facing opposition in Balochistan and the port of Gwadar has experienced long strikes and shutdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chinese workers faced terrorist attacks in Quetta and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions. Once China realized that Pakistan could not provide full life insurance to its workers in Pakistan, it threatened to shut down the projects. More than once, Pakistan has had to seek justification from Chinese authorities for its security lapses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems that China may introduce its security system in Pakistan to ensure that the developers of the trans-Karakoram railway will have security. Pakistan is said to have already handed over much of its vital infrastructure to China. Beijing will not move forward unless it has devised a reliable mechanism to safeguard the lives of its workforce engaged in the construction of the vital rail link.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Shaksgam Valley Challenge<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last but not least, an obstacle to the project is that the railway will pass through the Saxgam valley, bordering Gilgit-Baltistan in the west and Ladakh in the south, which India claims is under the illegal occupation of Pakistan. About 5,000 square miles of the Saxgam Valley were ceded to China by Pakistan, where the former has built a railway to Lhasa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India has warned both Beijing and Islamabad that the entire Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and the Saxgam Valley belong to India and it has the will and power to take it back. There is also a 1994 parliamentary resolution to this effect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three things are clear<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, China is determined to have a land link with Europe through crucial Asian states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second is that Pakistan is unable to contribute to the proposed construction. The entire railway will be in the hands of China and Pakistan must remain content with the status of a vassal state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The third and perhaps the most critical point is that the railway line will pass through a contested area. Once multipolarity is established or India is admitted to the Security Council as a permanent member with veto power, the entire political landscape in this Himalayan region will change significantly. India needs to reclaim the territory illegally occupied by Pakistan and after reclaiming it, focus on connecting with Central Asia through the Wakhan Corridor. This should be the ultimate goal of India’s foreign policy for the Eurasian region, which in the given circumstances coincides with US interests in denying China unfettered access to the Arabian Sea.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Chinese President Xi Jinping flagged off the largest Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) transportation project of the railway line between Kashgar in East Turkestan…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13637,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[836,3],"tags":[161,1490,2525,904,160,2772,906],"class_list":["post-13625","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-asia-geopolitical","category-geopolitical","tag-china","tag-geopolitics","tag-gwadar","tag-india","tag-iran","tag-one-belt-one-road","tag-pakistan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13625","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13625"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13625\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13638,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13625\/revisions\/13638"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13637"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13625"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13625"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13625"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}