On the French leader’s mind is certainly the latest Odoxa-LeFigaro poll published on March 31, 2023. It looks damning for the reformist president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
59% of the respondents believe that the massive and often violent protests against the pension system will continue. A 40% estimate that they will decrease over time. Worse for the president and the government is that 78% support the proposal by Laurent Berger, head of the centre-left trade union CFDT, for a six-month “freeze of changes” in order to jointly decide how to manage the crisis. President Macron and Prime Minister Elisabeth Bourne reject this proposal, but they are supported in rejecting it by only 22% of citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Government difficulties are driving public opinion in the direction of political change. 61% of respondents call for a change of prime minister, 58% of respondents call for the dissolution of the national assembly and early parliamentary elections, while only 22% support the scenario of changes in the government with the same prime minister. The Gaulish-inspired constitution ensures the completion of the five-year presidential term in 2027. But the country needs to be governed and there is a crisis of credibility that tends to get out of control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to the same poll, the most popular protagonist in public life is the head of the centre-left trade union organization CFDT, Laurent Berger, with 58% positive opinions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even “hardline” trade unionist Felipe Martinez of the communist-influenced CGT union saw his popularity rise to 43% just before his term ended and he was replaced at the confederation’s leadership. Le Pen’s party gains three points and has 36% positive opinions. The united parties of the Left (NUPES) also gain three points and reach 29% of positive opinions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In contrast, Prime Minister Elizabeth Bourne loses 4 points to 25%. Worse, the popularity of the president of the Republic drops two points to a meager 23%.<\/p>\n\n\n
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So we are dealing with an institutional, political crisis which we do not know exactly how it will develop. The only thing that is certain is that France is a country that is extremely difficult to govern and is unable to meet the requirements of the role of a European power that can, together with Germany, accelerate and deepen European integration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The causes of the crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking back at the causes of the great crisis, we can highlight the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1.<\/strong> Social Security-pension reform is more difficult than it sounds. Raising the age limit from 62 to 64 is a comparatively mild measure if we consider what is in place in most other European countries, which have established retirement age limits of 65 to 67 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But the fact that to get a full pension, based on the new system, you need 43 years of social security coverage or to reach 67, leads most people to retire at 67. Young people who need to be educated in order to pursue better professional development will hardly enter the labor market before the age of 24. Those in occupations that strain the body can hardly afford 43 years of work and insurance to retire. In addition, France has an unemployment rate of 7% – satisfactory based on the country’s performance in recent decades – but which may stand in the way of continued employment and insurance for many workers. Therefore the changes in the social security-pension are more difficult than the misleading title from 62 to 64.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2.<\/strong> In France there is an increase in inequality in income and wealth and there is a perception that society is becoming more unfair over time. It is typical that the richest Frenchman and according to some calculations the richest European and possibly the richest man on the planet, is Bernard Arnault, “king” of fashion and luxury. So on the one hand we have the France of abundance with its success and symbols and on the other a France that is struggling to make ends meet in its daily life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3. <\/strong>Emmanuel Macron started out as an executive at a banking group specializing in corporate takeovers. He made millions early in his professional career and then joined the staff and political effort of socialist President Hollande as a technocrat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the two presidential elections he won, he did not pay much attention to social issues. He was projected as a Europeanist with great potential in the economic field and clashed with Le Pen who represented far-right Euroscepticism. The match was up to him, but now that France’s social problems are emerging, he gives the impression that he is “playing away from home”. Many attribute political arrogance to him due to insufficient knowledge of the social situation of his country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4.<\/strong> The crisis was triggered by Macron’s inability to reach an agreement with the head of the centre-left CFDT trade union confederation, Laurent Berget. Although they had met in the context of their collaboration with the socialist president Hollande, their chemistry proved negative in conditions of great social tension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The previous presidents of the Republic had relied on the cooperation or at least the understanding of the CFDT to pass socially difficult changes and reforms. They felt that they could not expect anything from the CGT which was controlled or influenced by the French Communist Party but that they could find a way to get along with the CFDT. In today’s confrontation, the CFDT is leading the coordination of trade unions and rejects any increase in the retirement age. Therefore the executive has no way of addressing the union hierarchy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is also a French paradox regarding the organization of the trade union movement, in relation to the other major European countries. Only 11% of workers in France are unionized compared to 17% in Germany, 23% in the UK and 34% in Italy. However, the result of collective bargaining covers, based on the legislated way the labor market operates, 98% of workers in France, 58% in Germany and only 28% in the United Kingdom. Therefore, French trade unionism is organizationally weakened but institutionally powerful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n 5.<\/strong> There is a unionist, social tradition of subversion in France, which makes mobilizations and protests more violent and more dangerous to the executive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is characteristic that large trade union mobilizations are observed in Germany during this period, but they do not create an image of instability and a feeling of insecurity as in France.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the end of 2022, 4 million workers in German industry secured 8.5% raises over two years after prolonged strike action. More efficient are the workers at the German post offices who secured average increases of 11.5% at the beginning of March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is the turn of civil servants to claim together with the railway workers – 2 million civil servants and 230 thousand railway workers – increases of 10.5 to 12% with annual inflation which in February was 8.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Government officials also see in the large protest events a Trotskyist dimension similar to that of May 1968. Many political analysts conclude that the popular protest may turn violent like in 2018-2019 with the yellow vest movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The insecurity of the French<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The French also express their insecurity in the face of economic and social problems that are becoming more and more complex with the passage of time. Until just before the 2008 crisis, France’s GDP per capita was roughly the same as Germany’s. Today it is about 16% short.<\/p>\n\n\n\n France entered the new century with 18.9% of its GDP corresponding to its industry. The percentage has dropped to 13.1%. On the contrary, Germany shows a stability since in 2000 its industry corresponded to 26.5% of GDP and in 2022 to 24%.<\/p>\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n As far as France’s trade balance is concerned, its trade deficit is increasing year by year, reaching 110 billion euros in 2021. In the same year, Germany recorded a trade surplus of 181.2 billion euros, while Italy, despite its well-known problems, had a trade surplus of 40.3 billion euros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The evolution of the French public debt is also negative. By 2008 it was comparable to Germany’s debt a few points above the 60% of GDP required by Eurozone rules. In the intervening period, France’s public debt soared to 113.4% of GDP, while Germany’s remained stable at 66.6%. The record in public debt among major European countries belongs to Italy with 147.3% of GDP. Regarding unemployment, Macron was able to reduce it a little to 7.2% of the economically active population, but unemployment in Germany hovers around 3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is clear that France has to make a long-term effort to gain the lost ground, especially in relation to Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n However, major social changes are also observed which make the necessary adaptation difficult. From 2011 to 2021 the percentage of immigrants in the total population increased from 8.6% to 10.3%. Immigrants from Africa showed the largest increase from 2.4 to 3.3 million. The social composition of France becomes more diverse due to the fact that 10.3% of the population are immigrants, 10.9% of the population come from second-generation immigrants and 10.2% from third-generation immigrants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It is difficult to mobilize the entire population in a nationwide effort to strengthen the international competitiveness of the economy with such great social differences and particularities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Macron’s party that supports him is losing strength<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The bill for the ongoing crisis is paid by President Macron, who sees his popularity shrinking, and the party that supports him, which is losing strength without gaining deep roots in French society. It is a party with liberal characteristics designed to serve Macron’s strategy. As Macron’s challenge strengthens and he is out of the running for a third term in the presidency, a political vacuum may be created.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Based on the developments so far in the mobilizations, the forces of the Left are the protagonists, but they do not record the biggest gains. Le Pen and her party encourage the mobilizations without leading them and apparently have the biggest poll gains. Le Pen wins having established herself as an anti-Macron force after two electoral contests with him, for the presidency of the Republic. It also wins as a force of “responsibility and stability” since it avoids participation in dynamic to violent mobilizations and systematically speaks out in favor of the security forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Twilight zone for the economic, social and political development of France with serious consequences for the European Union.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" France seems to have entered the biggest social and political crisis of the last decades. The conflict surrounding the increase in the retirement age…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13254,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[818,390],"tags":[142,25,474,1123,1122,492],"class_list":["post-13245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-politics","tag-crisis","tag-eu","tag-france","tag-social-security-system-reforms","tag-social-security-pension-system","tag-social-unrest"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13245","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13245"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13245\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13251,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13245\/revisions\/13251"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13254"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13245"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13245"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13245"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-61.png\")
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