{"id":12912,"date":"2023-03-23T16:11:16","date_gmt":"2023-03-23T14:11:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=12912"},"modified":"2023-03-23T16:11:17","modified_gmt":"2023-03-23T14:11:17","slug":"the-end-of-chinese-patience-xi-jinpings-china-claims-role-of-regulator-and-peacemaker","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=12912","title":{"rendered":"The end of Chinese Patience: Xi Jinping’s China claims Role of Regulator and ‘Peacemaker’"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

China is the second largest economy on the planet, with the visible possibility that at some point in the future it will surpass the US, it is increasingly upgrading its military capabilities, and is trying to expand its economic and political influence, including ever closer cooperation with Russia. But at the same time, China appears to be taking initiatives for regional understanding and “normalizing” relations, even in relation to regions and countries where the US has historically claimed to have the first role.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After secret negotiations in the Chinese capital by the host country’s top diplomat Wang Yi, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani and Saudi National Security Advisor Mohammed Al Bien signed an agreement to restore normal diplomatic relations. This is a major geopolitical upheaval since the rivalry between Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia has played a central role in all the conflicts of recent years in the Middle East from Lebanon and Syria to Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that Saudi Arabia was in previous decades a key point of reference for American foreign policy (and the recipient of a very large amount of American military material) but also a key interlocutor of the US in matters of regulating the global energy market and on the other hand Iran remains at this time a country in particular that the US treats with hostility \u2013 as evidenced by the quagmire in talks to restart the deal on Iran’s nuclear program \u2013 makes this deal all the more important.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The importance of agreement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saudi Arabia and Iran have long been two regional powers in conflict. On the one hand, a major oil-producing country (and key regulator of oil prices worldwide), with a political structure of a highly authoritarian kingdom with powerful armed forces, a historical relationship with the US and a key “exporter” of a conservative version of Sunni Islam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, an Islamic Republic, par excellence representative of a version of Shia Islam and a key force of an “axis of resistance”, largely opposed to the West, Israel but \u2013 as the case may be \u2013 also to the conservative monarchies of the Gulf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two countries that have been clashing for years for influence in the wider Middle East, in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, while supporting opposing factions in the Yemeni civil war. In fact, in the latter, not only has Iran supported the Houthi rebels, but it has also provided them with the know-how for particularly impressive drone strikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, at the same time, the new landscape that is taking shape after the war in Ukraine, the refusal of several countries to side with Western policy, the partial withdrawal of the US from the Middle East, the upgrading of China’s economic role and the emergence of new gatherings and potential integrations outside the narrow “Western” context, these two regional powerhouses have reason to seek greater understanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neither Saudi Arabia can disengage from the costs of the war in Yemen without some type of consultation with Iran, nor can Iran assert that regardless of Western sanctions it is recognized as a political and economic interlocutor in the wider region without consultation with Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The beneficiaries and the losers from the agreement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A major beneficiary of the Beijing agreement will be Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who will quickly return to the Arab League from where he was ostracized by the Sunni blog of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. On the contrary, the agreement was a cool wash for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. who reckoned that the Sauds would not only soon recognize his country but also take a stand against the Iranian front that the Americans are trying to build.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As such, the agreement has the potential to be a factor in changing relationships in the region. It is enough to reflect on the previous efforts of the US through the “Abraham agreements” to promote the normalization of the relations of the Gulf states with Israel, in the horizon of the formation of an anti-Iranian axis in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the contrary, if we combine the agreement with Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement with Turkey and Qatar, a new dynamic is taking shape in the region that may also have an impact on Syria. Essentially, while the US was trying to form a new “sanitary zone” vis-\u00e0-vis Iran, in the region itself more comprehensive dynamics of cooperation and new balances are developing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, this agreement upgrades the role of China, which seems to be gradually trying to fill gaps left by the simultaneous withdrawal of the US and overinvestment in a more conflictual perception of the world. This deal was just the beginning. It was the first step to flesh out China’s global security initiative announced last month. The next most difficult step will be the Chinese mediation of peace in Ukraine which begins tomorrow with Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow and his meeting with Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n

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The economic lure of a multipolar global economy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A critical aspect of Beijing’s ability to mediate is precisely the way it is currently playing a role in a series of parallel processes that lead to an upgrade of forms of economic and political cooperation that are not defined in the narrow Western framework (G7 \u2013 NATO \u2013 EU). Both the BRICS initiative and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization are part of such a direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Saudi Arabia is monitoring both BRICS, where it is seeking to be upgraded to full membership, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (where Iran is already a member). These partnerships also point to openings in other markets and are linked to Riyadh’s attempt to carve out a role for the post-oil era as well, mainly by transforming the country into a technology hub.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Accordingly, Iran sees its own participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization as an opening to a wide range of markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s not forget that all these initiatives are also related to the need not to have an exclusive dependence on a trading framework where the West maintains a privileged role (through the dominance of the dollar as the reference currency and the SWIFT system as the basic infrastructure for carrying out transactions).<\/p>\n\n\n

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The parallel role of Russia<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It may have been China that came forward and brokered the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, but the parallel role of Russia, a country that maintains good relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, should not be underestimated. which was also reflected in the recent visit of Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud to Moscow and the discussions with Sergey Lavrov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And if relations with Iran concern a more comprehensive strategic convergence, which is also reflected in Iranian support in relation to the Russian war effort in Ukraine and cooperation in Syria to support the government forces, in the case of Saudi Arabia it is no coincidence that stable cooperation on oil price regulation at OPEC+ level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, today Moscow and Riyadh’s agreement on oil production is a key parameter in shaping the price, despite US pressure for large increases in production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, in the case of the relations between Saudi Arabia and Russia, a more comprehensive impression emerges. After all, Russia plays a key role in both the BRICS Group and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and overall the processes that shape a more complex international architecture.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China is the second largest economy on the planet, with the visible possibility that at some point in the future it will surpass the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[836,3,834],"tags":[161,160,58,1107],"class_list":["post-12912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asia-geopolitical","category-geopolitical","category-middle-east-geopolitical","tag-china","tag-iran","tag-russia","tag-saudi-arabia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12912"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12912\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12979,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12912\/revisions\/12979"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}