{"id":10671,"date":"2022-11-11T00:19:31","date_gmt":"2022-11-10T22:19:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=10671"},"modified":"2022-11-11T00:21:39","modified_gmt":"2022-11-10T22:21:39","slug":"us-elections-why-the-red-tsunami-became-a-soft-red-wave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/?p=10671","title":{"rendered":"US Elections: Why the “red tsunami” became a “soft red wave”?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Voters broke with historical norms and approached the midterm elections as a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The Democrats’ performance wildly exceeded expectations and turned history in Tuesday’s midterm elections, with the “red wave” expected by Republicans nowhere to be seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The best news for the GOP is that it looks like it will retake control of the House of Representatives by a slim majority, although results in key states have yet to be announced. Beyond that, the results so far have been a string of disappointments for the GOP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Senate, the results of the contests that will determine who will take control – namely Georgia, Nevada and Arizona – have not yet been announced. But the Democrats already have something to hold onto, helped by John Fetterman’s victory in Republican-held Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If Democratic senators Catherine Cortez Masto and Mark Kelly triumph in Nevada and Arizona, the party will retain its majority. And if either loses, Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is currently headed for a runoff in December that could determine the majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democratic candidates had strong showings in other contested gubernatorial races as well, holding onto seats in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Maine, New Mexico and New York.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A first interpretation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While it’s still too early to draw any definitive conclusions about why the “red wave” never came, there are a few trends that are starting to emerge that could explain what happened last night, Vox points out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A broader takeaway is that cadres of both parties have proved quite resilient – making these mid-term elections the first since 2002 in which there hasn’t been a “tsunami” to “take and lift” the ruling party pointing to the incumbent president the front door of the White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, there was a reversal of the results at the polls, mainly due to redistricting: the new maps helped Republicans in New York and Florida, but also Democrats in Michigan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another widely observed element is that the country remains quite polarized: the results of this contest are quite reminiscent of those of 2020 and do not tilt in favor of the non-governing party, as is usually the case in midterm elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are two potential culprits for the Republicans’ relatively weak performance:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization of the Supreme Court ending federal protections of women’s right to abortion and<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Former President Donald Trump.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Analytically<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    1.<\/strong> Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization of the Supreme Court ending federal protections of women’s right to abortion<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    A year ago, when the Republicans secured power in Virginia and came incredibly close to a victory in New Jersey, it seemed as if history was repeating itself: that voters were turning against the governing party.<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Historically, this is the most common outcome in US midterm elections. This has happened the last four times, too\u20142006, 2010, 2014, and 2018\u2014all \u201cwave years\u201d with the non-governing party doing dramatically well in Congress, winning the race in contested states, and shaking up the waters all over the opinions. Only very dramatic developments in American politics, such as the impact of the 9\/11 attacks on the 2002 midterm elections, were able to reverse this pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Why does this happen so often? Due to the nature of midterm elections many of the incumbent’s supporters may not participate because he is not on any ballot. They feel no threat and no motivation because they know the president will still be in the White House after the showdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In addition, political scientists have formulated the “thermostat” public opinion model, whereby undecided voters who change their minds tend to turn against the ruling party, believing that the country has shifted too far either to the left or to the right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As late as the first half of 2022, polls and special election results showed Democrats headed for a regular midterm election showdown. And then\u2026 the Supreme Court made the Dobbs decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The repeal of federal protections for abortion rights by conservative Supreme Court justices eliminated a legal status quo that had been in place for half a century and is a rare example of a dramatic policy change to which a sitting president is clearly opposed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Millions more Americans faced the possibility that if they or someone in their family needed an abortion, the government would deny them access to it. The shift in political sentiment was quickly felt when the results of the special election came in. The decision\u2014as well as related statements and ads by Democrats\u2014seems to have mobilized voters who otherwise wouldn’t turn out in the midterm elections, and to convince undecideds that Republicans have moved the country too far to the right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2.<\/strong> Former President Donald Trump<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But there was another major difference between this midterm election and all previous ones: the role of Donald Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Typically, midterm elections take on the role of a referendum on the party in power. Those who lost in the presidential elections forget their defeat, change the page and start blaming the party of which the current president is a member for all the ills of the country. They encourage voters not to vote for “those guys” and ensure a landslide victory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Republicans followed that strategy this year, with their ads focusing intently on inflation and crime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    And yet, voters appear to have viewed the 2022 midterm elections as a choice between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump\u2014rather than a referendum on Democrats alone. In fact, in many states, voters appear to have made the same choice they did in 2020, with the results for state governors matching those of 2020 very closely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Trump has used his influence this year to nominate problematic candidates in key races, such as Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia. He also made a return to the headlines in the second half of 2022 for facing legal trouble, continued to play down the legitimacy of Biden’s victory and began preparing for another presidential run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In the meantime the Republican Party has made it unmistakably clear that it remains the “party of Trump” by stifling some weak voices that tried to present a new face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But the political division remains in the country<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, although the Democrats exceeded expectations and broke with historical norms, the election did not constitute a sweeping victory for their party.<\/p>\n\n\n

    \n
    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    Republicans look set to secure control of the House of Representatives, while some traditionally swing states that Trump won in 2020, such as Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, still support the party. Moreover, many of Trump’s preferred candidates were not overwhelmingly rejected by voters, but instead lost by only narrow margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In other words, the country remains divided between a large bloc of solid Democratic voters and a large bloc of solid Republican voters, with only a relatively small group of swing voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    What these midterm elections have made clear is that this divide will likely continue to exist as long as Trump remains a significant force in politics. When Trump recedes into the background, as he did in 2021, and Republicans change how they present themselves, they appear to be able to win over wavering Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    But now Trump is back. He is extremely effective at motivating his party’s voters and winning the loyalty of his base. At the same time, it has alienated an even larger group of voters, including many swing voters, and Republicans have suffered because of it, since the “red tsunami” they dreamed of never came.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Voters broke with historical norms and approached the midterm elections as a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The Democrats’ performance wildly exceeded…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[390,819],"tags":[779,1621,973,215,1305,70],"class_list":["post-10671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","category-usa","tag-elections","tag-november-us-elections","tag-politics","tag-us","tag-us-elections","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10671","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10671"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10671\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10680,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10671\/revisions\/10680"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10675"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}