General Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, announced today that Russia is retreating to the left bank of the Dnieper River in Kherson province. If that happens, the Russians will also have abandoned the provincial capital of Kherson, a city of 284,000 they have occupied since the first days of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt is advisable to organize the defense along the border barrier of the Dnieper River, on its left bank\u2026. The decision to defend the left bank of the Dnieper is not an easy one. At the same time, we will save the lives of our servicemen and the fighting ability of the troops\u2026. The maneuver of the troops will take place as soon as possible. The troops will occupy the prepared defensive positions on the left bank of the Dnieper,” RIA Novosti reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1. <\/strong>So far the Ukrainians have liberated small cities, towns and villages. The liberation of a major city like Kherson from Russian occupation forces would be a major success that could herald a future flood of liberated urban areas. And that would be the beginning of the end of the war and, possibly, the Russian military as an effective fighting force. We may expect Russian soldiers to engage in even greater insubordination and desertion. Morale will plummet. Reactions and fights between officers will increase. After all, who in their right mind wants to serve or take charge of a battered and retreating army with their tails between their legs?<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2.<\/strong> Releasing Kherson would be a huge slap in the face for Putin, one that some analysts have suggested he may not survive. True or not, backing down would certainly undermine Putin’s popularity with the adoring Russian masses, who believe he is infallible, and his legitimacy with the political and financial elites, who will have even more evidence of his incompetence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A major defeat such as in Kherson could easily create the conditions under which coups are usually staged. Even if he survives this disaster, Putin will be a much weaker president. And that, in turn, means the power struggle between rival successors and their supporters is likely to become more vicious. Regardless of its abolition, policy-making will become less effective and warfare will become more difficult. Can Putin’s regime survive for long if weakened? Can the Russian Federation survive if the regime is weakened? Western policy makers should ask these questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3.<\/strong> The liberation of Kherson will be a huge shot in the arm for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian Armed Forces and their General Staff, and the Ukrainian population, deprived of heat and light by Russian drones and missiles. Unless the Ukrainians suddenly become insolent, they will be able to parlay this momentum into further victories on the battlefront. The spirit of the citizens will be lifted and their determination to survive the cold winter ahead will be strengthened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Zelensky’s stature in the world will rise even further, and so will his ability to convince Ukraine’s allies that they should support a winner. Western countries that have so far been reluctant to support Ukraine as needed will join the pro-Ukrainian bandwagon, lest they end up on the wrong side of history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In short, the fate of Vladimire Putin, his regime and Russia hangs on Kherson.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" General Sergei Surovikin, the commander of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine, announced today that Russia is retreating to the left bank of the…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[825,3],"tags":[58,1156,1166,1976,3395],"class_list":["post-10641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe-geopolitical","category-geopolitical","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-vladimir-putin","tag-war","tag-war-in-ukraine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10641"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10641\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10643,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10641\/revisions\/10643"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}