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The financial cost of divorce is a major factor that can prevent this divorce from occurring, but I would like to concentrate in some future issues. Following, the decision of the Referendum in UK, June 23th, 2016 with subject the stay or not of UK in EU, we should look:<\/p>\n
by Thanos S. Chonthrogiannis-https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n What is the landscape in the UK economy after the divorce with EU?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n 1.<\/strong> Will there be a flight of large international banking institutions from the UK to the eurozone members and the EU in general?<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2.<\/strong> Will the clearing system that exists in the euro currency for capital market products and has so far been based in London (UK) will and irrevocably move to the eurozone\/EU? What final cost will this have for the UK?<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3.<\/strong> Will the UK products sold on EU markets be subject to a percentage of tariffs and duties burdening disproportionately and making their final sales price very high, so that they are not competing with other similar goods? <\/p>\n\n\n\n This\nalone will create many competitiveness problems in the productive part of the UK-tax\nbased companies, forcing most of them to install their productive and\nfunctional piece in an EU member-country. I do not think will be\nachieved a trade agreement between UK and EU on these issues, and like the\ntrade agreement between the EU and Switzerland. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The\nwhy is more complicated in both economic and historical terms, since\nSwitzerland has been for centuries the duty-free repository of ubiquitous\nEuropean citizens, the Swiss market is much smaller than that of the UK,\nSwitzerland has characterized over time with a neutrality which is acceptable\nto all European countries, and sooner or later Switzerland will become a member\nof the EU and the eurozone equally. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition, EU would never want to give such an enticing divorce and a correspondingly enticing commercial deal to a former member country because it would create a precedent and so anyone who would like to leave EU could go away as if it had not happened nothing (bearable and low cost). <\/p>\n\n\n\n 4.<\/strong> In addition, it is more likely to cut off any privileges enjoyed by Switzerland and the EU in its trade agreement, adjusting the EU to a new tougher agreement with Switzerland, which would have forced the UK to follow (Trade agreement which will be the same for all and under the same conditions for all non-European Union trading partners, rather than distinct trade partner agreements).<\/p>\n\n\n\n 5.<\/strong> Any strategy to reduce the tax on profits of UK-based companies as a counterpart policy by the UK governments to impose tariffs and duties on products from UK and sold in the Eurozone \/ EU markets does not mean that it will necessarily create those presuppositions and conditions to attract investment and companies from all over the world to UK, given that Ireland is a member country of eurozone\/EU and has an official spoken English language.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 6.<\/strong> If EU wishes, it will be able to use the entire Ireland as a competitive tax environment for companies that choose to move and reside in the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 7.<\/strong> In this economic, fiscal and business environment, escaping business production to the European continent will take place slowly and steadily, creating long-term major social problems in the UK society, such as rising unemployment, increased borrowing rates over long periods, financing problems of NHS (National Health System) and the pension system from the state budget and at the same time increasing the poverty rate as the cost of living is likely to increase in an environment with ever lower incomes than is currently the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Why referendums are not good counselors?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The\nreferendum and, in general, any referendum is a static event that reflects the\ndecision at a given moment – and as it was formed by most of a people at a\ngiven moment. If after a year, e.g. since the\nBritish referendum (23\/06\/2016) was once again a referendum on the same issue,\nthe decision of the majority would be very different from the decision of its\nreferendum (23\/06\/2016). <\/p>\n\n\n\n If the UK\nremained in EU and after twenty-five (25) years, they were calling for the same\nreferendum on the same issue – perhaps it would never have been approved to\nmake this referendum – since another generation of UK citizens would have grown\nup with UK to be in EU, while another older generation would have left this\nworld.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The referendums are always advisory to the Parliament and Government of\nthe country in which they are held. The referendums are never raised for\nnational issues except for issues concerning local communities. The referendums\nare characteristics of the direct Democracy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the great Greek philosopher Aristotle (384-322 BC) and later the philosopher Photinos (203-270 AC) first discovered the problems that arise from the direct democracy through the decisions the people take on all kinds of issues using referendums. It was the referendums in ancient Athens which,<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1.<\/strong> sent to prison the great Greek philosopher Socrates (469-399 BC) who ended up drinking the hemlock,<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2.<\/strong> gave rise to charlatans like Alcibiades who led the whole people to the failed Athenian expedition in Sicily\/Syracuse (415-413 BC),<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3.<\/strong> these constantly created turbulences in the Republic of ancient Athens through the establishment of tyrants and dictatorships alternating in ancient Athens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If in 2010, when the Greek fiscal crisis broke out,\nthe then Greek government (2009-2011) called for a referendum on whether Greece\nshould implement austerity policies while entering the Memoranda to receive\nfunding with aim to reduce its gigantic fiscal deficit to the state budget or\nnot to apply any of the above, then the Greek people would vote no in austerity\npolicies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In this case, the then Greek government – if it\napplied the no of the referendum – should make a violent adjustment to the\nstate budget by removing Greece from outside the eurozone and the EU. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But in this case the Greek economy would go back\ndecades and the Greek people would live with greens and from the humanitarian\naid that the other countries would send. The fortune, and perhaps the life of the then\nruling ones, would be ignored, simply because the people always see the outcome\nand not what it decides in a referendum. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In June 2015, after a five-year delay, the then\nGreek government (2015-2018) provoked and made a referendum on these austerity\npolicies and the implementation of a Memorandum of Understanding (July 2015). The\nresult of the referendum was no in austerity policies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The then Greek government (2015-2018), to avoid the\nconsequences I described above, was forced by the then Prime Minister Alexis\nTsipras (2015-2018) not to implement the result of the referendum by doing\n“kolotoumba” – after he had caused the referendum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n On their own, these events prove\nthat the Governor and, more generally, the democratic system of government\nshould not appeal to the people for critical decisions – through referendums –\nbecause never the whole people can have accurate, true and detailed information\non critical issues. At the same time, are involved\ninterests that affect the citizens’ judgment, without these interests being\nobvious. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Moreover, besides the fact that\nthe people can easily fall victim to deception by lobsters and liars, the vote\nin referendums can be given by some with a slight heart, without understanding\nthe immediate and long-term effects. Naturally, the citizens are not\nresponsible for it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The paradox is that England with the publication of Magna Carta (1215 its first edition), and later with the requirement and adoption of a written Constitution of the 17th-18th century (i.e. Act of Settlement (1700), Union with Scotland Acts (1706-1707, Petition of Rights 1888, Source: Wikipedia). <\/p>\n\n\n\n In which the distinction of\npowers was defined while defining as the main task of Parliament the protection\nof human rights against any arbitrariness under the governance of the country\nby the respective government, created and demonstrated in practice the proper\nfunctioning of the representative Republic (mainly due to the existence of a\nwritten constitution and by the authority that Law is Rex) changing\nthe world’s political data to date on how best to govern a country by using the\nDemocratic system. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In this way, England has once\nagain drawn from the scene the existence of all the negative actions that can\ncause to the governance the rule of direct democracy through the referendums.<\/p>\n\n\n\n And yet England made the mistake for\ninternal party reasons of the then ruling party to give a referendum to the\npeople on the eve or not of the UK in the EU. But without this referendum being\nby nature binding but always advisory to Parliament and the Government, made it\nthe main subject of electoral debate (about the implementation of the\nreferendum decision). <\/p>\n\n\n\n By neglecting the fact that\nreferendums on such crucial issues almost always divide the people for many years\nif the result of the referendum is fully adopted and not used as a counsel for\nthe decisions that Parliament will take on this issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The geopolitical questions\nthat want answers<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe as a geographical area but\nalso as a market was, is and will always be the vital space of UK. It is the\nfeeder of the UK economy and the main destination of UK products and services. <\/p>\n\n\n\n There will surely be some who\nwill say that UK’s primary vital space and market is the British Commonwealth\nand not the EU. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But those who say it will have to\ngive any possible answers to what will happen in 20-25 years from today,\nperhaps much earlier, where the very likely global Chinese hegemony in terms of\nGDP (Gross Domestic Product), in terms of the largest state in\npopulation and as a global military force, it will try to “break” its\naccumulated “muscular” power into its immediate neighbors in the\nPacific Ocean and not only. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In this case, to create a barrier\nto global Chinese hegemony, the USA (United States of America) will lead a new\ncommon monetary union with the other Anglo-Saxon Pacific countries that also\nbelong to the British Commonwealth (Canada, Australia, New Zealand) and\ndirectly connected to this monetary union the allies of USA, like Japan, South\nKorea, Philippines. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Trying in this way to impose new\ninternational institutions and rules of trade, accepted by the world, in order\nto bind in this framework rules China with its capitalistic economy but not its\nliberal governance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Another reason that the USA will\nseek their participation in this new common monetary union with these countries\nwill be their attempt to halve the size of their inappropriate external debt\nwith the possible unilateral disappearance of much of this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n When the Anglo-Saxon countries\nthat make up the British Commonwealth are incorporated into a new monetary\nunion with the USA, then the British Commonwealth will not exist as a single\nmarket as we know it, free of tariffs for UK products and services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In this new monetary union with a leading power to be the\nUSA what will be the position of the UK, and especially after the loss of the\ncountries belonging to the British Commonwealth? Will enter in this new common\nmonetary union the UK?<\/p>\n\n\n\n In this case the markets in which will be addressed\nthe services and the produced products of the UK in which will not be imposed\ntariffs, duties and increased fees will shrink dramatically with the analogous\nconsequences in the economic, commercial and social life of UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n How it will enter? Will it accept the removal of\ncontrol of the imports which are originated as much from USA as from the other\ncountries of that monetary union that would test its balance of payments\nresilience? What participation will have the UK in the decisions of this union?<\/p>\n\n\n\n The UK already belongs as full member of EU and is\nalready in its mechanisms and decision-making centers. Which is the reason to\nleave from one monetary, economic, political and in future defense union and\nafter years of being forced to enter in another new common monetary union,\nignoring whether it will hold a leading position in this new common monetary\nunion, while today can remain as full member of the EU and to lead in many of\nEU\u2019s sectors given that the EU is its vital space?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Is it better, after the divorce with EU, the UK to be\nconsider as an \u201cenemy\u201d country from EU and the opposite the UK to consider the\nEU as an \u201cenemy\u201d country and market and whatever this means? <\/p>\n\n\n\n With the simultaneous existence of new monetary unions\nin the world, which will not allow without barriers and without tariffs and\nduties the sale of the UK\u2019s products and services to them? <\/p>\n\n\n\n Or <\/p>\n\n\n\n is it better to continue to participate, as full\nmember of EU, in the EU\u2019s mechanisms and centers of decisions equally,\nparticipating the British people in the common course and prosperity of the one\nand unique European nation (which is composed of all the nations of the continent,\nwhether they live and write history in continental Europe or live as islanders\nof the European continent)? <\/p>\n\n\n\n Besides, all nations and\ncountries of the European continent have been aware among them not only today\nbut since the past millennia. Anyway, the opposites are attracted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The common challenges that unite the EU\nand the UK<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n I believe that the challenges for both EU and UK are common and are much more than any of the differences, and only united under the same roof, can face them successfully. Some of this type of challenges are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1.<\/strong> The common economic-financial, tax and fiscal policy equally in the whole territory of EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2.<\/strong> The challenges faced by both the European Union and the UK by other neighbors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 3.<\/strong> The creation of common institutions and structures that can provide the maximum in a very fast time to all citizens independently in which member-country of EU they live.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 4.<\/strong> The creation of common defense structures and European defense forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 5.<\/strong> Common and effective institutions to tackle immigration but also to combat repression of international and domestic terrorism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 6.<\/strong> A common welfare state in the EU etc. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The internal migration to\nthe EU (that is, from member-countries of EU and eurozone to other member-countries\nof EU and eurozone) and any heavy burden on the UK\u2019s budget, as any heavy burden\nof the state budget of every other member-country of EU, can be solve-as\nproblem-by a specific organization within the framework of EU (more about this\nI will mention in another article).<\/p>\n\n\n\n The only pleasant event\nthat can arise from a referendum like the British one of 23\/06\/2016, is that\nthe negotiations between UK and EU, as to their forthcoming divorce, can\nilluminate and clearly illustrate the terrible costs that both sides will have\nat both political, economic, and social levels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n This can give the real\npicture and the data that can truly inform the British people about the effects\nof a divorce. In this case, and having all the data in their disposal, the\nEnglish government could turn to the people justifying any decision not to\nproceed to the divorce with the EU having first informed the English Parliament\nand the rest of the UK Parliaments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Parliaments of UK\n(England, Scotland, Wales and North Ireland) having at their disposal all the\ndata plus the decision of the referendum of 23\/06\/2016, will can, after a vote,\nto decide on the stay of UK in the EU. <\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, the\nleadership of EU and the leadership of UK in a simultaneous and common report\nwill must together announce on the stay of UK in the EU and to talk for a\ncommon course of achievement of common targets and the UK to continue to be\nmember of EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition, the exit of UK\nfrom the EU will cause a deep breach in what we call West and Western World,\ngiven that will create geopolitical rearrangements within the Western World. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Thanos Chonthrogiannis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n It is forbidden by the law of intellectual property in any way unlawful use\/appropriation of the present article, with severe civil and criminal sanctions for the offender <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" During the last two (2) years all the citizens of the world and mainly the citizens both of EU (European Union) and UK (United…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":612,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[818,390],"tags":[23,279,280,276,277,503,278],"class_list":["post-101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe","category-politics","tag-brexit","tag-brexit-and-eu","tag-brexit-and-us","tag-brexit-consequences","tag-internal-migration-in-eu","tag-the-cancellation-of-brexit-and-the-possible-uks-stay-in-eu","tag-uk-economy-after-brexit"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=101"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1380,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101\/revisions\/1380"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/612"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=101"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=101"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=101"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.liberalglobe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/02\/299px-A_Chronicle_of_England_-_Page_226_-_John_Signs_the_Great_Charter.jpg\")
James William Edmund Doyle (1822-1892)
https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/magna_carta
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